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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • firstturn74 firstturn74 May 7, 2013 10:48 PM Flag

    Valuation

    I think this valuation is likely more realistic in the near term.
    65000 CF cases = 60% using Arikase = 39000 patients
    $25000 per year (avg between est 20K and 30K cost per yr per patient)
    39,000 patients x $25,000 per yr = $975 million
    Cost to produce Arikase, estimate 30% of sales
    Cost of Sales = $975 million x 30% = 292,500,000
    Net Income = $975 million - $292.5 million = $682 million
    Multiplier = 6
    Company Valuation = $682 million x 6 = $4,095,000,000
    Shares outstanding = 31 million
    Price per share = $4,095,000,000 / 31 million shares = $132 per share

    With NTM, one could assume that if Arikase gains approval for CF that the pathway to NTM is much less risky. And we know from comments that NTM has a larger market potential. Additionally, you can add in the prospects of Non-CF patients and one could speculate a 3 to 5 year target of $250 - $350 per share.

    I will trust ignorant responses with no credible working example like the above will confirm that my calculations are close.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Foof for thouight. There are so many unknowns here that makes all of this purely academic. I have no idea what the per patient revenue will be, nor what it costs to make this stuff. I also think the PE may be too low at 6. Who knows, but it can be fun to play with numbers.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to ltdobanion
      • Each $1B in MC equals $30 in SP. For me, that is about as complicated as it needs to be right now since everything is subject to change. If we get bought for $2B - presto-chango SP is $60. And, it is good to think in terms of $billions since it puts it in perspective. The idea that a new drug in an immature market will fetch $5B gives you more to chew on than saying $150/sh.

        I'm sure others will disagree with me, but, hey, this is a MB. We all have an equal voice.

    • What basis do you have for using a net income multiplier as low as 6?

    • Lewis plans to cover every potential application so your estimates of share price could be increased considerably.Would you prefer that when we break over a 100.00 that the board implements a share split? Or would you like the share price to trade in the hundreds? Personally,I`d like to see a 2 for 1 after we break 100.00 and another one if we come back over 100.00 again. After the 1 for 10 reverse longs got served without a shareholder vote,it would be nice to get some of those shares back.I would need 200.00 to make the same money than if the share price went to 20.00 pre- reverse.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hi, fud/evelyn/gollum/penny. Nice alias. The attitude in the last sentence gives you away. As do your assumptions and general demeanor. You need to drop the non-European cohort for now in your CF evaluation. As you said - near term and that means Europe alone. Your cost of sales number is way off and that in turn affects your margin. Back you go.

      You and terry are equally bothersome. Where is the happy middle ground with either of you two?

      • 2 Replies to satltsasw
      • In hindsight, should have left out the last statement. I get so tired of the back and forth banter on this board, but in reality it seems I just made it worse. I am looking for some real insightful speculation. If you disagree with my post, fine, but I ask you supply your own valuation for just don't reply at all.

      • satltsasw ? Are you the poster formally known as suprachja or nanoknooks ?
        As evident as Evelyn is wrong on her possibilities , you have been wrong investing in a third tier drug/co ..with the losses you have incurred over the years. I have both short and long positions on this stock as one of my guilty pleasures, but please before you condescend, how much have you lost? oh bothersome one?

 
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