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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • levonchiko levonchiko May 22, 2013 6:14 PM Flag

    Increasing price target to $18-positive data likely

    Additional upside in NTM YE:reiterate out perform.
    We are increasing our price target on Insm to $18/share ahead of an upcoming positive,readout from their phase III trial of Arikace in CF (PA) lung infection.top line Arikace data in CF is expected in late June/ July and is to be followed by data on NTM by YE:13

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    • If you read how these analysts are calculating the share price a few things stand out. First, they project a 40% tax rate - which will never happen. 2/3 of sales will be overseas and tax rates in Great Britain or Ireland range from 15% to 8%. The average effective tax rate will likely be more like 20%. Second, they are discounting at a rate of 25% per year - at the very high end of the scale - to get a net present value. They also don't seem to take into consideration the tax loss carry forward and assign no value to Iplex. Finally, the value on a buyout from big farma, given their even lower effective tax rates and a much more favorable net present value, would likely end up 2x to 3x higher than the adjusted value.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Levonchiko, could you please clarify something for me? This $18 target price........is it by any chance "pre-split" price?

      LOL

 
INSM
13.41+0.88(+7.02%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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