1. Russell will lock up some shares and essentially take them out of the float. I have not, and do not expect any price appreciation. The funds are not buying on the open market.
2. PII for CF looked very good. The PIII trial design is smart and was well thought out by Insmed. Review the PII data from the Insmed website. Endpoints were met with a p value of less than 0.001. That is a good number and statistically shows the benefit was due to Arikace, not randomness.
3. PII trial design for NTM is equally smart. Sputum sampling and CFU as endpoints were hard won and in our favor. MICs were unaffected which is something TOBI is struggling with.
4. QIDP, if granted, is a significant benefit. Opens the gates to fast tracking, longer protection in the market place and opens doors to more products/indications. It's like orphan status on steroids.
5. WL and his senior staff are smart. I like these guys. They know what they are doing.
Salt, here is a little historical perspective on Insmed's latest 2 Russell inclusions in 2009 and 2011. These are two distinct scenarios that played out for different reasons.
5/29.....share price ended at $16.80
6/19.....share price peaked at $24.7
6/25,,,,,PR issued on PII iPlex trial for MMD
6/25-6/26......7 million shares traded and share price went from 23.30- 10.80
6/30.......share price ended at $10.00
5/31........share price ended at $10.72
6/14........share price peaked at $13.50
6/24........4 million shares traded
6/30.......share price ended at $11.99
So what happens if we get the results before the russel shares are added - isn't it the third friday of june they get traded in the last few minutes of the day? So how could we have a pre-arranged price if we got results before the russel shares get traded? and doesn't insm have to release the reults within 24 hours of receiving the news from the fda? I understand the per-arranged price but what if we get results before?
lux, I think that is a really good question. One of the questions that I have is that the initial PR is likely to say something like this: Insmed announced today that the results from the company's phase III trial for cystic fibrosis met its primary endpoint of non-inferiority with tobramycin inhalation, brand name TOBI. The company also announced that in this important phase III trial, the companys once per day inhalable drug arikace also met or exceeded many secondary endpoints.
We may not know the actual strength of the results until full data is revealed at a conference or symposium. When the share price took off in 2011 it was when complete phase II results were revealed at the European CF Conference.
I think it is similar to if you want to buy something - anything. You agree to buy it at $100 and you seal it with a binding contract. If, in the meantime the value of that object increases, you still buy it at $100. So it goes.
those who believe that Russell inclusion will add to share price are just that..if that were the case, the entire investing world would simply wait to see who gets included and poof, wealth beyond their wildest dreams...what I have learned is wall st never ever ever gives away $$$
I agree. I think a lot of the Russell is priced in right now and to be sure they are bought at a prearranged price and not on the open market. Trial results and various other news will propel the SP significantly if they are as we expect.
Nice post saltsaw. I agree with what you say except that I have to think that the Russell inclusion will have some effect on the share price....at least it did to the down side last year.
That said, what I have liked for some time regarding Insmed is the likelihood of approval especially after the complete phase II data was released, along with what I feel is a great chance of achieving sales penetration quickly. It is not going to be difficult to find the right population to market arikace to. Insmed continues to remind me of JAZZ, which in June of 2009 had a 30 Million market cap, and just crossed over 4Billion this week. At that time, the profiles of both companies were nearly identical......to develop and market pharmaceuticals to orphan markets with a high unmet medical needs. ... I could care less what effect Russell inclusion has, as I view these shares as a terrific longer term hold.
Mel Sharokys view that Insmed could become a leading biotech company , at least IMO, continues to move quickly in the right direction.