See my Guide for Beginners thread for my calculation.
The Shorts are now in serious trouble, and the big sales yesterday afternoon and this morning offer all the evidence we need.
In both cases the seller sold 40 or 50 thousand shares in the space of a few minutes. The object was not to get the best price for his shares (he would have sold gradually to do that) - it was to get the largest drop in the share price for the shares he sold.
Those sales were sold by somebody hoping to buy a far greater number of shares - in theory for a cheaper price before the accumulation on behalf of the funds starts in earnest.
The preliminary list of Russell 3000 additions and deletions is due to be published tomorrow. The Shorts holding a position of around two million shares are almost out of time.