Exclusion criteria assures Arikace crushes TOBI like Cayston did.
Patients develop a resistance to the efficacy of TOBI and Cayston the more they use it. In placebo trials, where patients use TOBI for the first time, it performed much like Cayston. About 11-13% improvement after 28 days, a 50% drop in those gains during following 28 off days, etc... Progressively worse w/ more cycles.
In Cayston's comparator trial against TOBI, TOBI never broke over 1% improvement during 3 cycles, and Catston ended treatment at 2%, down from 8% or 9% at start. Why did TOBI suck? 80% of enrollees had prior use of TOBI.
A few years later, TOBI prevalence has gone up. I suspect we have at least similar rates of historical TOBI usage, meaning the chances of failing P3 endpoint is close to zero.
The important thing to look at is how durable the efficacy is over the 3 cycles. If it sustains efficacy, we will eclipse TOBI $400M sales, otherwise we will see at least $200M.
For instance, $200M sales means fair value for stock (before NTM P2 results announced) is over $20, with $8 being attributed to NTM. By year end, we could be $30. These estimates are the LOW end projections. They also align with industry PTs which maintain risk adjusted numbers til after P3 results announced.
blehair. Not sure who you are, but you are not a random YMB poster. Your posting style reminds me of another poster. I'd go so far as to say that you have an agenda here. Maybe it is just to disperse information and keep the MB readers up to date with some flavor of positive spin. But, you are not some guy or girl that found INSM and picked up some shares.
Based upon his/her writing style, and just starting posting 8 days ago, it makes you wonder why he/she is here to protect the longs from selling their shares too cheaply. There's a purpose for this stock newbie just as Russell is beginning and that Phase 3 results are due. Does remind me also of another poster. Most of the longs are here for one reason, the traders are here for another. But there are investors out there who would like to get in or accumulate more at a cheaper price. Some with many IDs are phony, some of the new ones will just try to be slick!
I post to get my ego stroked and to convince myself of my bull case. I am, in fact, just someone who stumbled upon INSM not too long ago. My only agenda is to prevent longs from selling their shares cheaply in the face of certain upside.