Gee,I wonder what shareholder would`ve sold @ 11.50 after hours last night?
Another example of manipulation-I call it the buddy system,that`s when you sell your buddy 100 shares for .63 cents less the market close,hoping to cause real sellers to think it`s a real trade and there may be some bad news coming. Don`t laugh but there`s some real dummies out there that these crooks feel they can rob of their shares.or they wouldn`t bother with this BS.Watch out for your stop loss tickets foolio`s,these crooks want to take them out.
"Who would give a thumbs down..."
I would. Tired of conspiracy theorizing guesswork. SoSh, over and over.
Just watching the volume, looking for the occasional news bits, and enjoying the almost relentless looniness of the YMB.
Oooorrr, Mmaaayyybeee I'm just another one of those paid manipulators.
The Shadow Knows. MMMMMoooooohahahahahahaha.
The design that permits historical use of TOBI assures primary endpoint will be met because the TOBI arm may have 80% historical use of TOBI... This means efficacy of TOBI is going to be fraction of what's reported in TOBI placebo trials when TOBI gets used for the first time.
Cayston vs TOBI had TOBI not even increase FEV1 more than 1% at any point in the trial, while Cayston showed 8% improvement after 28 days, and that deteriorated dramatically over 3 cycles.
The thing to look at with upcoming results is safety and durability. How much of the efficacy from the first 28 days is maintained over 3 cycles? And how does the safety compare to TOBI?
We have reason to believe, evidenced from the open label 28-56 day cycle that efficacy may even increase over the first few cycles, and evidence from the placebo phase 2 28-28 day cycle trial that efficacy could be maintained over the first cycle. Those results are better than what I've seen come out of the TOBI and Cayston placebo trials.
If Arikace illustrates a similar efficacy and safety profile as Cayston, then our revenue estimates for TOBI in the CF indication will be $200M at minimum. There will be a market for different modes of treatment for CF inhalers due to loss of efficacy in any one of the available options the longer you use it. When we factor in NTM and non-CF expectations, the fair value for $200M revenue is over $20, and we would hit that PT before NTM phase 2 results are reported at the very latest.
However, if Arikace illustrates superior efficacy to either, and superior durability and safety to both, the revenue potential is then more than $400M, making the fair value $30. Such a PT would be hit BEFORE NTM phase 2 results are reported.
The shenanigans the past couple weeks is nothing more than that. Trial CANNOT fail, and Russell needs in. This stock goes UP when results published. The AH is evidence of the #$%$ they are willing to pull to get more shares before it shoots up.
Assuming that you are correct regarding the revenues and fair value of $20 and $30, respectively, the sales price increase is 50%. The revenues double from $200M to 400M, a 100% increase. Was curious as to your formulations regarding the percentage breakdown in drug cost and utilization by the CF patients in the EU and global markets, and in the US if that indication is approved, or do your numbers include all markets?