If you know someone with CF you are pulling for INSM. It is all about efficacy for Arikace. If Arikace shows significant improvement over Tobi, it will capture at least 80-90% of the CF inhaled antibiotic market within six months of production. Believe me there is no brand loyalty . . . its about results, life and death. This will be a potential $1 billion annual market for INSM, just for CF. So FMR sells off 10% of their position and puts some profit in the bank. Not sure what you call that? I call it prudent and responsible. All signs point to success in Phase 3 trials. I believe $25 a share will be just the beginning for INSM on release of data.
If this is personal and you have been following cffDOTorg, then you know that an array of drugs and biological will be used to treat CF. Not just one that will take over 90% of the market. TOBI, the solution form of tobramycin, has been out there for years which is why all the "mutated/resistant" strains of Pa are charted against TOBI. The pipeline of drugs at the cff site clearly shows how an inter-related regimen of antibiotics and other drugs and various regimens will be used to treat chronic CF. The importance of Arikace is the once per day (SID) dosage. This will allow "significant reduction" and "prolonged suppression" of Pa in CF patients. However, there is no published information that Arikace has cause "eradication" or complete elimination of Pa. That is the real test of efficacy in antibiotics. But the fact that Arikace knocks down Pa significantly while breaking up the biofilm and causing the mucous to "thin" and be expelled from the lung with once per day Rx is the part that will become "the gold standard." But it will not stand alone as the only antibiotic, or the only treatment. There are other antibiotics coming along and poised to be included in new antibiotic regimens for CF. And there will be others under the new GAIN and QIDP guidelines. But these facts do not automatically translate into marketing surveys, SP and other stock manipulations as you have probably learned. Or not.
Arikace will supplant 90% of the current Tobi market is what I said. There are obviously other antibiotics and treatments used to combat CF. And, yes there are always new and better treatments coming...thank God! Arikace will prove superiority over Tobi, just as it did in Ph. 2. We'll see how much the markets think that is worth Monday morning....good luck!
Nice-Thanks biofarmervt,well said. Although some might think this is a pump on my part, but I see 50.00 with the data release and then a retrace back to around 20.00 right after,you know the story,first it`ll be elation and then the story will be that they`re a year away from commercialization. After all that transpires,which I truly believe might,then I would`nt be surprised to see a 100.00 a share a year later.Don`t forget that we have much more in potential revenue streams than just Arikace,and Lewis has stated he intends to go for multiple applications.
I envision a very similar scenario., blueye. Insmed will go a lot higher than anyone imagines, but will potentially fall after shorts get squeezed to a cheap entry price for NTM results later this year.