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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • rosettawest Jun 29, 2013 1:12 PM Flag

    After Monday...

    Assuming Monday's results will be positive, what next? I'll admit I got into this recently, hoping to ride up on a pop from the Phase 3 results. But now I'm contemplating staying in long-term if the results are good. From what I understand, there might be a dilution at some point this year, and also these Phase 3 results might not be sufficient for an NDA, and another trial might be necessary. Those are the downsides. On the upside is the possibility that this trial will be enough for an NDA, and potentially positive Phase 2 NTM results will come out later this year. Very long term is the possibility that Iplex will re-emerge. What else am I missing? Sorry if there's anything ignorant in this post - as I said once before, I'm not an INSM genius.

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    • How likely is it the results could turn out negative?

    • blehair Jun 29, 2013 2:50 PM Flag

      FDA might accept an NDA based off the P3 results if they accept the design. All things considered, the major value driver in INSM is the NTM indication, which reports P2 results by year end... If the P2 results are robust enough, it would be sufficient for an NDA.

      INSM CF indication will be on the EU market by 15Q1 at the latest. The NTM indication could potentially be on the US market by 15Q1 at the latest too. So when INSM needs to raise, they only need enough to last them to 16Q1-Q2.

      If INSM pops to mid-high $20s in the short-term, I expect a fairly priced financing within weeks at the latest. There would be little reason to sell shares to avoid it, look at KERX's financing PPS action. The NTM indication has a lot of upside potential for the stock, so a discount financing is very unlikely.

      If INSM stays under $20, Co will most likely wait til NTM P2 results before they do a financing. INSM is just going through the motions with NTM, the chances of not beating placebo when Amikace has already demonstrated effectiveness at combating lung infections is very remote. That's why I highly doubt a financing leading up to the NTM results.

      INSM has enough money to last to, at least, 14Q3, but could probably stretch it out to end of 14Q4. This means INSM should aim to raise enough money to last them another 1.5 years, or about $80M.

      At $10 PPS, that's 8M shares... At $20, that's 4M shares... At $30, that's under 3M shares. Most likely scenario, assuming NTM doesn't fail (unlikely), is that they raise when PPS is over $20. So, at most, INSM will experience 13% dilution.

      Bottom-line is, dilution fears is hardly warranted in this stock. In my opinion, INSM should have raised before this Monday, but there is enough in the bank, with enough upside potential in the stock (especially with NTM indication w/ Orphan designation), that a financing won't be at a discount. Market knows this, given their increasing PTs (w/ will only increase after Monday, expect upgrades all day).

      • 2 Replies to blehair
      • I have nothing to say about financing, timing of financing, but NTM infections are a different beast. They are very difficult to treat, especially M Avium intracellare. I wouldn't cout on positive results from that trial. It has a tendency to infect little thin middle to older aged women, and some, despite years of systemic antibiotic therapy, remain infected. I had a pulmonilogist who was a very good teacher who thought there is something anatomically wrong with these women's lungs that allows the infection to continue. I think that as long as there is no worsening of lung fxn, and no increase in sputum colonization/ radiographic worsening; aricase may be a success in that local delivery of antibiotic trial for a disease that systemic antibiotics don't even work for.

      • rosettawest Jun 29, 2013 2:59 PM Flag

        Thanks for that analysis blehair. That helped alot.

    • as has been explained to me and others on this board;;;the position will unwind. I've told of my experience with another bio;;;a bad experience, and I learned ;;;Money changes everything. Now say I'm Terry, that always works! Initially, if results are favorable, the news will spread quickly to the cystic fibrosis community, but besides money the road to launch is a long one.Stay thirsty my friend.

    • Perhaps down the line.....IGFBP-3 and INSM-18

25.66-0.50(-1.91%)Jul 27 4:00 PMEDT