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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • msft902 msft902 Jul 1, 2013 4:27 PM Flag

    my 2 cents to your emails

    sorry took some time to get back to you emails..lisenned the call
    plz coerrect me if i am arong..i have very limited knowledge of arikace, cf and ntm..
    1. my take is there are little over 20k us patients
    2. there are curently approved tretaments for pa cf...what is the yearly cost today in US and EU for those treatments?
    3. based on todays limited data, the only advnatage i see one time usage of arikace vs tobi...that is great, but not material for insurance carriers...most likely all plans will put this in 2nd /3rd step tiers if they decide to include in their formulary. check Pegloticase (savinet) for rcg patients...they and fda had projections from 180 to 280k patients in us, but savint may only have 300 patients after 3rd year after approvals..so be carefull
    4. my opinion arikace will get FDA approval one day....not sure about EU/NICE...europe are more cost sensative and NICE may recommened against it if it is more than $30k/year, assuming also arikace will be sold premium vs alternative meds..if cost i snot a factor NICE/EU will approve easiely
    5. considering arikace may be more expensive than tobi, considering it is late in market, it will be hard to get much penetration from CF PA market....is 10% too much? not sure..but won't go more than 25%..
    6. assuming of fda approval, can insmed even make money from cf? ...check dndn, svnt, hgsi and many others who never made a dime..without knowing all the details, my guess is no..just a guess based on the above points
    7. NTM - I do not know much, but it sounds like this may be good catalyst for longs...this has higher patient counts, not much competitions and may make good business sense to invest . I like to know what current NTM patients get...how expensive are these phase ii and hopefully phase 3 trials be? it may take another 2-3 years before commericaliing for ntm (assuming all successes on the way) but it may be worth it...
    also get a new cmo who understand trials, statistics and every bit of data...
    good luck

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    • posting good ones from the last week

      by msft902 • Jul 1, 2013 4:27 PM Flag
      .

      sorry took some time to get back to you emails..lisenned the call
      plz coerrect me if i am arong..i have very limited knowledge of arikace, cf and ntm..
      1. my take is there are little over 20k us patients
      2. there are curently approved tretaments for pa cf...what is the yearly cost today in US and EU for those treatments?
      3. based on todays limited data, the only advnatage i see one time usage of arikace vs tobi...that is great, but not material for insurance carriers...most likely all plans will put this in 2nd /3rd step tiers if they decide to include in their formulary. check Pegloticase (savinet) for rcg patients...they and fda had projections from 180 to 280k patients in us, but savint may only have 300 patients after 3rd year after approvals..so be carefull
      4. my opinion arikace will get FDA approval one day....not sure about EU/NICE...europe are more cost sensative and NICE may recommened against it if it is more than $30k/year, assuming also arikace will be sold premium vs alternative meds..if cost i snot a factor NICE/EU will approve easiely
      5. considering arikace may be more expensive than tobi, considering it is late in market, it will be hard to get much penetration from CF PA market....is 10% too much? not sure..but won't go more than 25%..
      6. assuming of fda approval, can insmed even make money from cf? ...check dndn, svnt, hgsi and many others who never made a dime..without knowing all the details, my guess is no..just a guess based on the above points
      7. NTM - I do not know much, but it sounds like this may be good catalyst for longs...this has higher patient counts, not much competitions and may make good business sense to invest . I like to know what current NTM patients get...how expensive are these phase ii and hopefully phase 3 trials be? it may take another 2-3 years before commericaliing for ntm (assuming all successes on the way) but it may be worth it...

    • Thank you. What stocks do you own these days. Thx

    • yahoo limited number of characters you can use :-)
      on russell front... ..as you recall i predicted about $14.00 closure ( sftware came at $3.82 with +/- 15 cents)

      if i seen stock price at $10 something or $11, after reaching $14.20s, then i would have think some additional data is behind the decline...we know that today...

      remember many contrarian funds short russell inclusion stocks and go long with exclusion stock..knowing the artificial prices will normalized within days/weeks...shorts here are very lucky , just a day later phase 3 news...

      probably some funds who were accumulating last few weeks for index funds actually lost money..i have to double check but volume chart analysis shows many paid a lot higher than 11.95 for their shares...
      it is funny same thing (even worst) happen 3-4 years ago...accumluated many many shares in 1.80 to 2.40 range and sold them to index at about 1.05 if i remember

      good luck

    • Arikace for CF today is now known.It is a inferior to equal effectiveness as the current leader TIP (2x /day powder) with a good advantage in once a day dosing but at a higher price.
      Sadly, the patient is the loser... Don't shoot me !....I'm just a trader-

 
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