Arikace has just passed the Phase III clinical trial required for an EU marketing authorisation.
Arikace has already passed the animal toxicity studies required to prove the drug is safe.
I challenge any basher to explain how anybody buying shares at the current price could realistically fail to record a substantial profit.
How could an EU marketing authorisation realistically NOT now be forthcoming? And when available, what reason could a patient or physician have for choosing twice-daily Tobi over once-daily Arikace?
The Company has enough cash to fund operations into 2014. It will need to raise more cash around year end, but one would expect the share price to be well above $50 by then, and the dilution associated with the share offer to be minimal.
Dropping the share price well below $9 upon the release of the Arikace Phase III results was "business as usual". The professional players are experts at misleading retail investors.
With both the safety and efficacy hurdles overcome, anybody with even a rudimentary awareness of valuation can see that the share price is likely to be well over $100 within three years. But a drop in the share price is guaranteed to plant seeds of doubt in the minds of the vast majority of retail investors.
And having failed to take the opportunity to buy below $10, many will now be paralysed by indecision as the price starts to move higher - hoping for a pullback so that they can rectify their error.
Some will end up not buying until the share price is twice the price at which they could have bought just after the new was released - and end up with half as many shares.
The professional players will have the other half.
$50 by year end.......there you go again predicting the future share price. Two questions for you:
1. Have you ever been remotely accurate in your previous price predictions?
2. Are you suggesting you can predict the future? I ask because in a post aimed at me predicting your $800 share price as being unlikely you stated, "you must be severly mentally ill to delude yourself for one second that anyone believes you can see the future."
We have no idea what the sp will be but we do know that insiders, the CEO specifically, are buying. We know that Arikace is safe and comparable to TOBI. We know that it is a once per day vs twice per day treatment. We know it seems to get more effective over time vs less effective for TOBI. We know that even the FDA seems to believe that it may solve the lack of drugs to help with NTM. We know that Iplex will likely be manufactured as Premiplex, allowing production to ramp up well before the patent issues expire - which hopefully means cost of production will have already been driven down. Along with this, we know that it will then provide a viable alternative to Increlex. We know that many other studies using IGF are underway and early results hold some promise.
The issue is how quickly any/all of this generates revenues and what the net present value is. I suspect even today its closer to the $21+ average projected by the analysts.