Now that the risk/reward profile of INSM has been transformed by the successful outcome of the Arikace EU Phase III clinical trial - and the data from the additional nine-month toxicity study requested by the FDA suggest no safety risk with prolonged use - one would expect substantial accumulation over the next six months or so.
The price just after Phase III results are released is often just the start -
Date ...............Open ... High ... Low ...Close ... Volume
[July 20, 2009 - Human Genome Sciences, Inc. ... today announced that BENLYSTA™ ... met the primary endpoint in BLISS-52, the first of two pivotal Phase 3 trials in patients with serologically active systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).]
I suggested yesterday that there wouldn't be many more shares for sale than are currently becoming available if the share price was increased by 50%.
And as long as the share price isn't going up - why would anybody buy now rather than later?
But the longer the investors monitoring the situation delay their accumulation, the shorter the period in which they will all eventually be buying shares - from investors who will have even less reason to sell than they do now.
Guess we're in a temporary expectation-management phase - with the aim of ensuring that when the main post-results accumulation phase does kick off, retail investors will have sufficient doubt to prevent them from starting to buy until the price has moved significantly higher than $10.
"Nothing happening here any time soon - move along please".
My gut feeling is that the majority of the shares sold since the Phase III results were released have been snapped up by retail investors who understand valuation.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that the sellers have been professional investors with the objective of nipping in the bud any momentum in price appreciation - and that they agreed before the results were released to mislead retail investors by dropping the price as though the results were bad news.
The Short position at the end of June will give us an idea of how many shares the Shorts supplied to the tracker funds having already been tipped off that the results would allow flexibility for negative spin.