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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter4 fudfighter4 Jul 11, 2013 8:17 AM Flag

    Did somebody just lose a multi-million dollar bet?

    I suggested in the run-up to the Russell 3000 inclusion the possibility of a multi-million dollar initiative to deceive retail investors by ensuring the share price didn't reposition at a higher level as a result of the Phase III results.

    I'm seriously beginning to wonder now if this is exactly what we've witnessed. But did the manipulators completely underestimate the number of investors tracking INSM?

    Four or five million shares were supplied to the Russell 3000 tracker funds on June 28 - followed by ? million shares supplied to meet the demand which drove the share price from its pre-market low on July 1 to around $2 higher a few hours later.

    That's a considerable number of shares when one considers that retail shareholders were holding less than ten million shares beforehand.

    With the benefit of hindsight, the institutional shareholders which presumably supplied the shares to the tracker funds may have been under the impression Arikace had failed Phase III. But one wonders if whoever did supply those millions of shares will now be looking to buy them back.

    However, the float is now significantly reduced, as the tracker funds must hold those shares for a year at least. And presumably the vast majority of the remaining shares are now in the hands of holders who understand what they're likely to be worth this time next year.

    If you're holding shares I suspect you're about to enjoy a run most investors will only ever dream of. If you sell for $50, imo you will regret it for the rest of your life.

    Btw - if you doubt the FDA will approve Arikace for Cystic Fibrosis on the strength of the EMEA Phase III data you should take a look at the information I posted yesterday concerning the level of safety and efficacy the FDA deemed adequate to warrant approval of Tobramycin Inhalation Powder.

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    • In making the following observation -

      "A Pharmacor analysis last year estimated that the community-acquired bacterial pneumonia antibiotic market will increase from approximately $1 billion in 2011 to more than $1.2 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

      Several key antibiotics for CABP will lose patent protection by 2021 -

      Moxifloxacin (Bayer/Merck's Avelox)

      Doripenem (Shionogi's Finibax, Janssen's Doribax)

      Ertapenem (Merck's Invanz)

      Linezolid (Pfizer's Zyvox)

      Tigecycline (Pfizer's Tygacil)."

      - it's worth noting that the extremely modest projected increase in revenue over the next eight years reflects expectation that the brand names listed will suffer competition from cheaper generic versions.

      When Lewis told us recently that the Company was seeing progress in initiatives it has been pursuing he may have only been referring to internal R&D programs aimed at leveraging the broader potential of inhaled liposome delivery.

      But if I was responsible for a multi-million dollar revenue stream from a big-pharma drug which was due to lose patent protection during the next few years I'd be seriously considering ways of reinventing the drug while the patents still gave me a head-start on the generic competition.

    • Fwiw - I fully expect the fund managers who recently sold shares to now buy them back.

      A fund manager probably asks himself this same question every day - Is my capital currently in the selection of potential investments which offers the optimum risk/reward profile for my strategy?

      A fund manager who has already held INSM will probably know the investment inside-out. If he believes there's an investment in his portfolio which doesn't match what he would now expect from INSM over his chosen timeline it will be a no-brainer.

    • WE'RE THE TURDPUMPERS AND WE'RE OK
      PUMP ALL NIGHT AND WE PUMP ALL DAY
      WE SKIP AND JUMP
      WEAR HIGH HEELS
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      WE WISH WE WERE A GIRLIE
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INSM
15.37+0.08(+0.52%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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