Wedbush in May -
"We estimate that ARIKACE represents at least a $300-million worldwide opportunity for the management of chronic Pa infections in patients with CF.
We note there is additional upside to our market estimates should ARIKACE pricing come in higher than our estimated $6000/cycle estimate. We believe that the potential for once-daily dosing, effective biofilm penetration and resultant efficacy could, in our opinion, make ARIKACE the market-leading inhaled antibiotic in the CF and NTM settings."
The projected use by 50,000 patients worldwide was conservative. CF and NTM in the US and Europe alone account for upwards of 165,000 patients.
A later analyst note indicates that a present day valuation of $18 is equivalent to projected use by little more than 6,000 patients.
But it was the confirmation the market needed that the shares were substantially undervalued. The demand for millions of share in June by the tracker funds would surely drive the price to a reasonable valuation.
However - shortly thereafter certain investors embarked upon an apparently suicidal strategy of selling millions of shares.
How could they NOT have had a private guarantee in May that Insmed would make it profitable for them no matter how low they took the price?
May 24 -
$18.00 - Wedbush
Date ........ High ... Low
May 30 ... 14.30 ... 13.25
May 31 ... 14.00 ... 13.38
June 03 ... 13.66 ... 12.84
June 04 ... 13.48 ... 12.98
June 05 ... 13.13 ... 12.18
June 06 ... 12.90 ... 12.50
June 07 ... 13.28 ... 12.57
June 10 ... 13.23 ... 12.82
June 11 ... 13.08 ... 12.56
June 12 ... 13.15 ... 12.14
June 13 ... 12.81 ... 11.82
July 1 - Phase III success confirmed
July 2 -
$17.50 - UBS
$18.00 - Wedbush
$18.00 - Canaccord Genuity
$22.00 - Leerink Swann
$24.00 - Lazard
July 2 ... 10.15 ... 9.67
July 3 ... 10.20 ... 9.67
July 5 ... 10.39 ... 9.57
July 8 ... 10.54 ... 9.96
July 9 ... 10.20 ... 9.85
July 18 .............. 9.776 is revealed as Insmed's price for 6.9 million shares.
"Your e-mail to the SEC could be the difference"? How could anyone believe that?
SEC Revolving Door Leads To $5 Million Payday For Former Chief Enforcer
Robert Khuzami has capitalized [on his former position as top SEC enforcer with] a $5 million a year contract (with a 2 year guarantee) with legal behemoth Kirkland & Ellis where he will be a partner and "will represent some of the same corporations that the S.E.C. oversees."
They're just barely even pretending anymore. And who's going to sanction them, our heroically honest patriotic "representatives" in Congress?
Extracted from Zero Hedge posted article of the same name.
Apologies - the May guidance of worldwide revenue of $300 million from an Arikace pricing of $6,000 per cycle actually translates to a projected worldwide use as follows -
$6, 000 per cycle would equate to $39,000 per patient per year.
$300 million divided by $39,000 would equate to 7,692 patients worldwide using Arikace.
Building in the info on the valuation model -
"We arrive at our $18 price target by applying an 8x multiple to our ARIKACE sales estimates in the US and EU in 2017, discounted back 25% annually."
- $300 million x 8 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 / 32 million shares gets us to a valuation of -
$23.73 per share today - if 7,692 patients worldwide are using Arikace in four years time.
An expectation of more than 32 million shares outstanding by then would reduce that present day valuation.
But given the implications of the success of the CF study for the likely success of the NTM study, does anybody seriously think it likely that so few patients will be using Arikace in four years time?
fuddy...here's another tidbit for you. While NASDAQ doesn't issue regulations, they are 100% responsible for ensuring that regulations that affect any portion of their operation are met. Therefore, if Insmed did breach a regulation and NASDAQ knew about it, they would be compelled to report this to SEC or they would be held equally at fault by the SEC for failure to report.
As it was, NASDAQ sent Insmed a nastygram because Insmed didn't meet NASDAQ house rules.
You need a life preserver in this conversation as you are drowning in your own stupidity.
Here is what is wrong with "fudogic" (fud's logic).
The Phase IIb results got better FEV1 data (primary endpoint) with 28 days Rx and 56 days rest.
As far as displacing TOBI (not TIP) Arikace was not superior (gold standard according to fud) but "non-inferior."
There has been no superior Rx to TOBI among the three that have been compared Arikace, Cayston or Azithromycin.
What are the CF/Pa patients to do to avoid mutating Pa which might cause a refractory infection where they have to go to Colistin?
Develop a rotation of inhalation antibiotics that are going to keep Pa in check long term in these patients. Not blindly just keep administering any one agent.
Both cff and NIH believe this approach has merit. Only among stock pumper wanabes do the principles of medicine get disregarded. After all the goal is to treat the infection and save the patient. Not get an extra $10 in SP because of theories.
This is the most conflicted MB around. Too many years of unattained or underachieved clinical trial milestones. Now it is NTM (first and best hope) and CF/Pa (one of seven or eight choices).
Sentiment: Strong Buy