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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter4 fudfighter4 Jul 31, 2013 8:11 AM Flag

    Cree8ad82 - your question about valuation ...

    Re your -

    "How do you make a valuation on a company when you don't know if they have any product to sell or how long it would take them to make the drug."

    - you make a valuation by the same process used by these analysts -

    $17.50 - UBS
    $18.00 - Wedbush
    $18.00 - Canaccord Genuity
    $22.00 - Leerink Swann
    $24.00 - Lazard

    Taking into account all of the information currently available, you make your best guess of the number of patients likely to be using Arikace in four years time.

    A standard biotech valuation calculation gives you the expected market valuation today based upon your expectation of revenue in four years time.

    I think we've just got to the part where, if you're an honest person, you will either -

    a) give us your best guess as to the number of patients likely to be using Arikace in four years time, together with the breakdown by disease and geographical area you've assumed

    or

    b) acknowledge that you're in no position to comment about what is or isn't a reasonable share price at this point - or to comment about whether or not it was acceptable for the Company to price an offering at $9.776 instead of delaying it for a few months to allow the share price to reposition to reflect analyst valuations with confirmed Phase III success.

    Sadly there are a number of cheap shysters currently trying to further their personal agendas by deceiving other investors with opinions on valuation supported by nothing more substantial than hot air.

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    • That dose not answer the big Q about how much drug is there and when and where is it coming from it is based on if so many people at such and such price and the time line. Right now we are a company with a product that no one can buy and if all the answers are known by them where are they so we can see them. And there are a lot of people on this forum who don't believe the analyst because of them being to close to the company. and then there is always MOT.F who at one time was very up on the company. the answers to the Q what is the supply line with time line that is what I have been asking ad there seems to be no one with the answer. So once again you don't know if they have any product to sell or how long it would take them to make the drug.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to cree8ad82
      • Are you under the impression that when analysts usually value a development-stage company the company is already manufacturing its drug candidate on the scale necessary for the commercialisation roll-out - even though it's never a certainty that the drug candidate will actually be approved?

        You asked -

        "How do you make a valuation on a company when you don't know if they have any product to sell or how long it would take them to make the drug."

        Now you know. Companies at that stage of development are valued on the basis of revenue projections. Nobody in their right mind expects anything more on the commercial-scale manufacturing front before a drug is approved than the PLAN Insmed has recently shared with us.

 
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