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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter3 fudfighter3 Feb 13, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    The competitive edge of once-daily therapy

    In Type 2 diabetes the first-line therapy (usually a daily tablet) often can't control blood sugar levels alone. Amylin developed a supplementary therapy called Byetta, administered by injection - twice-daily.

    For three or four years Amylin and partner Eli Lilly had a captive market. Then Novo Nordisk launched a competitive therapy called Victoza, administered by injection - once daily.

    Within two or three years Novo Nordsk had captured over 60% of a market which for years was Amylin's alone.

    Here are the number of Victoza prescriptions for the first 33 weeks (all I could find) -

    Week / Prescription numbers

    1 .......... 49
    2 .......... 411
    3 .......... 1,057
    4 .......... 1,465
    5 .......... 2,164
    6 .......... 2,703
    7 .......... 3,268
    8 .......... 3,599
    9 .......... 3,911
    10 ........ 4,801
    11 ........ 5,330
    12 ........ 6,043
    13 ........ 6,616
    14 ........ 7,505
    15 ........ 8,090
    16 ........ 8,925
    17 ........ 8,551
    18 ........ 9,814
    19 ........ 10,355
    20 ........ 10,719
    21 ........ 11,728
    22 ........ 10,577
    23 ........ 12,163
    24 ........ 13,021
    25 ........ 13,475
    26 ........ 14,501
    27 ........ 14,340
    28 ........ 14,793
    29 ........ 15,282
    30 ........ 16,231
    31 ........ 14,636
    32 ........ 17,000
    33 ........ 16,908

    Btw - the DHW was clueless as usual. He watched the value of his shares decrease for years, instead of realizing what would happen and selling before Novo Nordisk gatecrashed the party.

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    • Also worth noting is that once a patient is happy with a new therapy the prescription tends to cover a longer period.

      Typically the patients on Victoza by Week 30 were receiving 30 days of therapy per prescription. Therefore the 16,231 patients who collected Victoza on Week 30 would have been taking it on Week 33, but would not have been counted in the prescription numbers again until Week 34.

      The number of patients on Victoza at Week 33 would therefore have been 16,231 + 14,636 + 17,000 + 16,908 = 64,775.

      The fact that 64,775 patients in little over eight months were attracted to a brand new drug by the convenience of once-daily dosing bodes well for the Arikace adoption curve.

      Build a better mousetrap .....

    • Fwiw - the numbers I had to search for (wading through old posts on Investor Village) related to the early days. The most recent number I have is for approx 2.5 years after the launch - when Victoza was being prescribed around 40,000 times each week.

      There's little to choose between the two drugs as regards efficacy or side effects.

 
INSM
17.50+0.40(+2.34%)Jul 29 3:59 PMEDT

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