They believe last July's report on CF indicated Arikayce is inferior to Tobi (who wrote this?):
"Given the unmet need Arikayce was given orphan designation in the US and Europe for NTM and the Pseudomonas indications. With this in mind regulators could approve it for NTM based on phase II results, but with questions over endpoints all eyes remain fixed on the upcoming readout.
Shares in Insmed – currently trading at $19, valuing the group at $750m – have doubled since last July, when Arikayce disappointed in a cystic fibrosis trial, being found inferior to Novartis’s Tobi.
Last month Insmed reported encouraging data from the first year of a two-year extension study in cystic fibrosis, with Arikayce showing a sustained improvement in lung function, and reduction in bacterial density. UBS analysts said the results could provide a positive readthrough for the NTM program, calling the indication an optimistic $500m to $1bn opportunity.
According to consensus from EvaluatePharma, 2018 sales could reach $371m by 2018, although opinion varies widely with individual forecasts ranging from $208m to $652m."