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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • badlands57078 badlands57078 Mar 21, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Goodwill value with approvals

    If / when Arikayce is approve d for the indications sought the concept of encapsulating a pulmonary drug as an antibiotic, anti-viral or treatment for lung cancer (remember Cisplastin) will have been vindicated. This instantly becomes a revolutionary concept in medicine that has the potential of driving long term value to da moon long before peak sales have been realized.

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    • Very insightful post. As it turned out, there were many uses for wheel as well.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Absolutely. One wouldn't expect any buyout offers before big pharma knows for sure the uses for which Arikace will be approved by the FDA, EMA and Health Canada.

      But I see no reason why any regulatory body would approve Arikace for anything less than the treatment of serious pulmonary infections due to susceptible strains of Gram-negative bacteria and Mycobacteria - assuming the NTM results due shortly do indeed evidence efficacy against NTM.

      The winner of the auction one would expect to be triggered by a buyout offer would need to reflect in the offer price projected revenue from other pulmonary therapies delivered via Insmed's liposomal delivery platform.

      But as for potential target markets for Arikace alone -

      30,000 with Cystic Fibrosis in the US

      44,000 with Cystic Fibrosis in Europe

      50,000 with NTM in the US

      30,000 with NTM in Europe

      30,000 with NTM in Japan

      630,000 with MDR-TB Worldwide each year

      4,000,000 with fatal pneumonia each year (how many more with life-threatening pneumonia which proves to be non-fatal?)

      Doubtless the vast majority of global pneumonia deaths occur from TB, AIDS etc in countries which rely upon foreign aid. But in ten years time the proportion who have access to Insmed's liposomally-delivered therapies could be far higher than is currently feasible.

    • maybe arikayce will be used for dumasDreamers.Insmed is a MIN of 18 months in Europe till approval and sales and bull like this is here

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