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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • jd39souza98 jd39souza98 May 28, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    Buyout a strong possibility

    In my humble opinion......INSM may get acquired given its pipeline and near term potential. Lewis has already done this before with his prior company so he's an expert in this area. I have no idea on valuation but if I was to venture a guess it would be mid to high 20's.

    Again just my opinion and its worth what you paid for it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • To even contemplate selling this company before the exploitation in full of Iplex would be ridiculous,never mind fully exploiting the potential of Arikace, and it won`t happen any time soon,certainly not before Iplex can be on the pathway to approval for one or many applications.The added value from the potential applications for Iplex could be billions in revenue a year,and would add major digits to a potential buyout here.Please stop hypathetically selling INSM for peanuts,when it`s full potential in value is nowhere near full fruition.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to blueyedcatch
      • lux19insm May 28, 2014 9:15 PM Flag

        I agree blueyed.....although I'm sure Merck and Ipsen know the full value of iPlex. So you never know - they could make a bid for insm valuing insm with it's full iPlex potential. The longer they wait the more it's going to cost them. I'm sure either big pharma would start iPlex up immediately. I highly doubt the patent issues would hold ground anymore when we know they can get around it with the right legal team.

    • The analyst prices you rely on are not buyout valuations. They are nothing more than predictions of the share price in a year's time.

      It does my brain in that anybody would actually believe an owner would sell a multi-billion dollar asset for a given price for the sole reason that the price is x% higher than the current share price. I suppose you would have argued when the share price was $4 not so long ago that $6 was a fair buyout valuation?

      Here's a clue as to what happens in practice -

      [ Is AstraZeneca "realistic in what it believes 'fair value' is?" Timothy Anderson, a pharmaceutical analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said in a research note Monday. "Projecting the worth of new drug pipelines is notoriously difficult, and drug companies and financial analysts alike are often wrong to the tune of billions of dollars, especially when going out five to 10 years. Drug development is just not that predictable."

      AstraZeneca said earlier this month that it expects to achieve annual revenue of $45 billion by 2023 as an independent company.

      The company, which has an attractive portfolio of cancer drugs, has repeatedly trumpeted the strength of its drugs in development, saying it is projecting peak annual sales potential of about $23 billion for those drugs by the end of 2023. ]

      • 1 Reply to fud.fighter2
      • Fud, not many here understand (speaking for myself) how huge this drug could be in the future. The only reference we have (sometimes) are Analysts who "seem" to know something. All this thread is - just frustrated speculation. As you alluded to, AZ said NO to $118B from Pfizer because they know what they have. Let us hope Insmed's management knows what the huge upside possibilities here are and get Arikayce to market.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • jd, that would only be about $1B for everything, patents, Arikayce, IPLEX etc. Given that most Analysts have the PT over $30 and Piper Jaffray at $51, would you not think at minimum $2B (about $50/shr)?

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to justarook04
      • I was just talking about the shorts cost to cover.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Very good point rook.....they may already have offers for mid-20s but per your comments the board would probably look for 30 plus for sure but most likely closer to Piper's SP estimate of $51.

        Don't know why but the recent price action (of taking It down from low 20's to current low teens) makes me think something is going on and people in the know want their insiders to get in before any announcement. Just pure speculation on my part.....but I may be onto something!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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