JMP had IDIX at a PT of $3 as of 1/30/14. They have a $25 PT for INSM (unless something changed last week). Merck values IDIX at $24/shr. What is WRONG with this picture? IDIX just went over $7/shr last Friday after languishing in the $6's. So, the market says IDIX was only worth $1.1B and Merck says $3.85B (or thereabouts). Miffed as usual.
for IDIX? Here are some tidbits (probably tainted but still):
"based on the data and facts we have in front of us right now, this might be one of the worst deals I've ever seen. Now understand that Idenix could deliver on samatasvir, its NS5A inhibitor, or its two other nucleotide prodrugs (IDX21437 and IDX21459), which would make this deal very much worth Merck's while. However, historically speaking, Idenix has one of the worst track records among all biotechs.
In 2010, Idenix had its then-lead compounds IDX184 and IDX320 placed on clinical hold by the Food and Drug Administration. Following this hold IDX184 continued on while IDX320 wound up be discontinued. In 2012, IDX184 was placed on clinical hold a second time along with IDX19368 following the death of a patient in Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY ) study involving BMS-986094 (the drug it acquired when it bought Inhibitex). Because Idenix's investigational drugs worked along the same pathway as Bristol's, the FDA decided to exercise caution. Long story short, both IDX184 and IDX19368 would be scrapped shortly thereafter. Finally, last year the FDA placed a clinical hold on IDX20963 until it delivered preclinical safety data to the regulatory agency. That's four clinical holds in four years folks (or five if you count IDX184 twice), aptly giving it the name of the "most unlucky biotech in the world" according to Foolish biotech specialist Brian Orelli."