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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • blank2thisone blank2thisone Jun 29, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    NTM revenue = $3.5 billion (110,000 cases * $35,000)

    According to SEC filing, CF cases excluded. PPS in the neigbourhood of $300, Nice!... And according to latest JMP conference this is a conservative figure!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • nonsense.\ I suggest this poster{if real} watch the symposium.\ the 110000 cases you cite are all cases,but only a few thousand will be critical enough and the treatment decision to be considered.

    • Just around the corner! iCPT scenario looming...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Here's a very conservative estimate based on published figures: 110,000 cases of NTM worldwide. In the US, 45% of cases were treated with drugs so you can assume that that percentage is seeking treatment and has access to insurance. So assume 49,500 worldwide would be treated. Use Lewis' most conservative treatment cost ($50,000) and you get $2.47 billion revenue. If you google "NTM cost of treatment" you will find several studies that show mean cost with existing drugs is around $5k ranging up to $36k. An approved, effective treatment should be able fetch a premium.
      If the number of cases is growing at 10%, then that' s 11k /year. If 45% of those are treated, that's 4,950 new patients/yr x $50k = $247.5 million. Put a 6x multiplier on revenue and assume dilution of another 10M shares, then you get a share price of around $30, just from new cases. That's pretty darn close to the average analyst target price.

    • Figures can say what ever you want them to say. The JMP presentation had some new twists to it on pricing but to get down to actual figures is hard to determine. The company says there are 110,000 people in US and Europe that have NTM with an 8%-12% growth. The remainder of the world was not discussed, so how many more cases are out there?. However, not every case would be treated by our drug. WL also stated similar drugs were being sold for between $50,000-100,000 for 6 months treatment. What does it all mean? A bunch of potential revenue but what kind of actual revenue can be generated? What kind of gross and net profit can be expected? What kind of P/E ratio can be expected? Will there be more dilution or a partner, maybe a buy-out.

      Who knows, but I agree there is a bunch of potential money out there and it may not be far off. What it does to a SP increase though is pure speculation.

      • 2 Replies to ltdobanion
      • As per SEc-filing:
        Strategy for Commercialization

        We currently plan to retain marketing rights for ARIKAYCE for the NTM indication. Given the current lack of approved treatments for NTM lung infections, we believe we will immediately have a strong market position if ARIKAYCE is approved for commercialization in the NTM indication. We believe ARIKAYCE will require a limited commercial infrastructure because of the small focused nature of the potential physician prescribing population for NTM patients. In 2013, we commenced preparations for the potential commercialization of ARIKAYCE, including hiring Matt Pauls, our Chief Commercial Officer. We plan to fill several other new positions to support our future sales and marketing efforts. We may also seek to out-license ARIKAYCE outside of Europe, Canada and the US.

        Given the outcome of latest ATS conference...It's a success!!
        The Insmed-sponsored symposium conducted in partnership with NTMir, titled “NTM Isn’t Waiting, Neither Should You,” was a resounding success. With initial attendance expected to reach 125 people, the final count was 305 clinicians and researchers who showed up to join an interactive learning-based event. Symposium faculty Dr. Charles Daley, Dr. Kevin Winthrop, Dr. Ken Olivier and Dr. David Griffith posed questions to the audience members, who were able to answer using iPads set up at each table, with the results tabulated in real time and displayed on screens around the room. (Click here for pictures from the symposium.)

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Only if you don't understand either the science, or the actual marketing returns, could one make
        up their own numbers. Most if us have no true understanding as to actually how many actual
        patients their are for this drug, or what level of market penetrations the drug could achieve. But
        there are professionals out there that do have at their disposal the assets to ascertain these true
        projections. I firmly believe this stock is moving up on the pretense of those folks knowing an
        investing based on their workups. Too many dollars are going into this company's stock to be
        majorativley speculative. I also do believe this company either through partnerships, or a buyout
        will not exist as a standalone by year end..

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