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A123 SYSTEMS, INC. Message Board

  • resrchanlyst resrchanlyst Apr 5, 2011 6:37 PM Flag

    Deal at this price

    This stock is a deal at this price. At 1.5 x book and over $2 per share of cash, this valuation will not last. A competitor will make a bid for the shares, or a private equity shop will steal it. For a current market cap of under $650 million, for a company that came public at over $2 billion and the company is now that much closer to profitability. This should migrate back to $8 relatively quickly once the secondary gets absorbed, that should have happend already or maybe have a hangover for a day more. With the price of oil rising and the pain at the pump getting worse, it's only a matter of time before EV's come back into fashion and the frenzy will begin. Also, the short ratio was around 15% and will probably be closer to being over 20% at next report. These shares will need to be covered, with such a small float, the squeeze will be large. This stock, at this price and vauluation is nothing short of a bargin.

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    • Deal at this Price?

      They said that at 11,10,9,8,.....

      They laughed at me when I told them they were both dillusional and stupid.

      Who's laughing now?

    • "Just as a reference, the battery cost for the Nissan Leaf, is $18,000."

      Thanks! That certainly makes good future revenues, and I can see why you're excited about the Fisker deal.

    • I don't know what Aone gets per battery. I vaguely remember reading that earlier, but that number will change year to year as volume increases. Aone management has stated that as volume increases, battery cost is expected to half within 5 years.

      Just as a reference, the battery cost for the Nissan Leaf, is $18,000. But I think the battery pack for the Leaf is slightly larger than the one in the Karma.

      Also, after posting my last post, I remembered that Fisker's sales projection was for the entire Karma lineup, not just the sedan you have seen. They have a convertible and a SUV planned. So 15,000 figure might not be for 2012, and Aone's revenue projections would not be on sales of 15,000 Karmas next year.

    • First of all,Wunderlich is a no name with probable ties to hedge funds that are short. The cash just rasied of $250 million plus the cash in they already have of about $250 million, add to that the DOE loan when it is awarded and they have over $6.50 cash in the bank. They may have to do another capital rasie in mid 2012, but the stock price should be significantly higher in that period. The Grid Energy Storage business is capable of providing the majority of the revenue and is capable of producing close to $350 million with potential contracts, the auto business will be slow, but that is expected. Anyone who is trying to talk this down at this level is short or long puts, end of story. The majority of the reputable wirehouses have the average price target at around $10, which is a fair value given the cash and potetnial business over the next eighteen months. The capital raise is over, the arbs have their postions in place, the stock should go up from here.

    • nadeaudt@sbcglobal.net nadeaudt Apr 6, 2011 6:19 PM Flag

      What about the stoppage of the factory in Japan for that coating they need for their batteries? When will that be back up and running?

    • Sounds very optimistic. AONE would really need to come close to the revenue expectations over the next two years to get back to a market cap of 900M. I can't see how they can possibly achieve this.

      Revenue 2007 41.35M
      Revenue 2008 68.53M
      Revenue 2009 91.05M
      Revenue 2010 97.31M
      Revenue 2011 208.50M
      Revenue 2012 445.84M

      A share price of $3.5, which an analyst of Wunderlich came up with, sounds more realistic than $8.

      • 2 Replies to dolphinino
      • That's an exciting company but the risk is still tremendous, even at this PPS.

        That was two months ago. Revenue expectations have declined, which should be in the share price, somewhat, but still I could not possibly imagine AONE to achieve its revenue goals of 208M this year. I am still with the Wunderlich guys of $3.5. If AONE needs fresh capital, we may even get to see the low $3's, imo.


        Revenue 2007 41.35M
        Revenue 2008 68.53M
        Revenue 2009 91.05M
        Revenue 2010 97.31M
        Revenue 2011 208.50M => 198.99M
        Revenue 2012 445.84M => 425.24

      • In the short and medium term, FISKER. That's it. Aone's increasing revenue guidance is based on Fisker sales.

        The reason this stock has floundered for so long is because the Henrick, the head of Fisker, has been stringing Aone and the rest of automotive industry along for over two years for his car to be produced. He has been showing a prototype in autoshows and promising to start production but has continually postponed it... until now.

        Also, in my opinion, his target sales of 15000 per year is reasonable, and price of $100,000 is reasonable as well. There are plenty of people who wouldn't have any problem paying that for the Karma.

        It has been painful, and this secondary certainly hurt the stock price, but Aone is much better positioned to survive and thrive in the coming two years.

    • Funny,

      I remeber clowns on this board saying that at;
      11
      10.5
      10
      9.5
      9
      8.5
      8
      7.5
      7
      6.5


      Now at 6 ?

      I'll wait for $2
      The trend is my friend, not yours.

 
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