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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Message Board

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  • sandonthebeach47 sandonthebeach47 Sep 13, 2011 2:59 PM Flag


    Did you mean to say that is what you hope?

    It seems that you say it like you know somehow.
    Just a bald assertion.

    Is there some reason or calculation that you can to share on how you determined that?

    Or, just tossing out some predictions based on astrology?

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    • He's already admitted that he is a basher. Some people have nothing better to do.

      I can appreciate giving facts, both good and bad, and then presenting them in the context of IVR's business model. But I do not respect BS such as "watch out below," or "$20 by tomorrow."


      • 1 Reply to sonnenwayne
      • I already stated, the price of the stock with a 80 cent dividend. I already stated the presence of short squeeze potential arising out of the expectation of refi, which is now a minimum of two quarters away. That doesn't help the shorts, or the fact that other MREITS have appreciated while IVY inexplicably took a disproportionate hit.

        I own this stock at $16.58. If it hits $19 I will sell it and wait to buy in lower. If there is substantial premium attached to the $17.50 option, I may write covered calls against the position instead, and ride it for the premium, saving the proceeds from the sale as dry powder.

        If the difference between the covered call and the next divvy is advantage divvy, I might buy the call back in anticipation of being called away, but I doubt it.

        Any questions?

    • The number of shorts has increased by 1/3rd since the announcement of alleged redemptions, which was a shithouse rumor exacerbated by the ooee ooee crowd which waited with baited feted breath, for Oblamer to announce his big redemption program which didn't require Congress, just a whim passed to the Freddie Fannie crowd. Well, it looks like that bit of rumor mongering has the announcement set back to the Jan-Mar 2012 time frame.

      Why it takes two quarters to enact a whim of the President gives the program all the credibility of the wizard of oz, nevertheless the shorts came out in droves at $16 and $17, and guess what?

      If they hang around past 8PM EST tomorrow night, they not only get their butts handed to them, they have to pony up 80 cents dividend which, of course, IVR gets out of paying.

      The last time this stock was paying 80 cents it was north of $19, which is the near term target for the shorts to panic up to tomorrow, and rightfully so.

      Even if the stock backs off 80 cents, the 80 cents comes out of shorty's pocket.

      So expect ANOTHER 70 cent rise in this stock tomorrow, on its way, after a flurry -80 cents on Thursday, back to $19.

      And stick your dividend up your ass. But don't forget to wipe it clean before paying it!


      • 2 Replies to yourdeadmeat69
      • What kind of nonsense is this statement:

        <<If they hang around past 8PM EST tomorrow night, they not only get their butts handed to them, they have to pony up 80 cents dividend which, of course, IVR gets out of paying.>>

        You obviously don't know how dividend payments are paid when a short position is involved. Let me try to explain with a simply example involving a company with 1 share of stock.

        Say party A owns 1 share of IVR. Party B establishes a short position by borrowing the share from A and selling that share to Party C. On the dividend date, party C is the record owner and gets the dividend and Party B owes the dividend to Party A. IVR still owes the dividend to Party C. It never owed the dividend to Party A so it's not getting out of paying anything.

        Maybe this is not what you meant in your post, but there has been an increasing amount of crazy theories, obviously designed to try to get a short-covering rally going to prop the stock up. One poster said that shorts who have to pay the dividend will somehow affect the book value of the company. Desperate, crazy talk.

      • I don't know about another 70 cents tomorrow, nor do I really care. However, I have to admit that it seems pretty stupid to be shorting this below say $17. JMHO


14.10+0.01(+0.07%)May 23 4:02 PMEDT