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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Message Board

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  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 Sep 13, 2011 5:34 PM Flag


    I figured you were answering the other guy, but had to make sure and, got a chance to revoice my opinion with a hair more detail.

    It's not genius investing, it's a huge selloff I didn't see in the other MREIT with quite as much downside when the others had leveled, so I figured, why not play it as if it were just a stock and bottom fish.

    If it had gone to 14, I'd have doubled down and sat on my hands, or sold $15 calls to make up the difference, and waited out one more dividend cycle before more calls sold, or cash out.

    I don't fall in love with any offering, and it seems to me that the MREIT debacle that is the current administration's answer is their answer to everything, destroy this private industry answer to investment in this beleagured sector, and nationalize mortgages, which is what the giveaway in Jan-March looks like to me.

    There will always be a place for REITS in the system, just have to be happy with 12-15% instead of 17-20%.

    And that's worst case conjecture on my part and some others. Fact is, the paper folks will actually refi unless they ignore loan to value completely, which is not out of the question in an administration that thinks this is all Monopoly money anyway--the amount under question is not the entire locus of loser mortgage holders.

    Behind all is the province of even more folks unemployed, and that problem is three or more years away in turning around, and won't respond to a few thousand in joesixpac's pocket next year if and when he can refi.

    That won't show a glimmer of turnaround to 2016.

    In the meantime, where can you go to get these kinds of yields?

    NOWHERE. 23% or 13%.

    That's my point, and it is lost in all this parsing and counting and connudling.

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