What happened to talk of death spirals, etc.? Those guys might have been right for all I know, though of course one would be a fool to take seriously anything read on a message board that's not verifiable. That they are silent now, though, suggests that they may have been disingenuous.
Most people that talk about shorting on these message boards have no concept of how to actually go about doing it. It seems that they think they can buy a stock and hold it for years and then sell it whenever the price goes down.
Childishly foolish, I know, but what can you do? I for one hope that one day, they actually do put their money where their mouths are.
The last wave of reserve increases was just the beginning. Give it another year at the most. It takes time for all the reserves from all the serious truck claims to develop. Lincoln General / KFS don't really have to disclose the true amount of a claim until just before they actually have to pay something. Until they actually have to pay a serious claim (fatality, quad or paraplegic, tramitic head or amputee victium) they intentially hold down the "reserves" they put aside to make their overall results look profitable when they are actually operating at a loss. At some point regulators get involved and properly set the reserves to reflect what will actually be paid to auto accident claimants and it's at that point it's found that the liabilities of the company actually exceed their assets...It all happens very quickly...one quater they are reporting record profits and the next they are in receivership by state regulators...Kemper, Reliance Legion...these are the most recent ones...there are so many ....It's really just a matter of time with this one.
I commend you for not changing your opinion when the price goes up. I am not an expert on the insurance business, but wouldn't inadequate reserves come to light within a few quarters (How long can you delay paying a claim)? KFS seems to have reported good results for at least the past 6 or 7 years.