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Unocal Corporation (UCL) Message Board

  • iwaslucky2 iwaslucky2 Jun 24, 2005 11:22 AM Flag

    Worried about China more

    This Chinese move gives me jitters, they slowly move, make decisions that are always seem permanent, show little flexibility (unless it is limiting their growing marketshare in a country by only 10% increases)and oil, cattle, hogs, grain, timber, nat. gas (red states for Bush) are our few industries (yes the reserves of this co. are in Asia)that are world market leaders.

    Do we wait for Biotech and Nanotech to make us exporters again?

    When oil hits $100 will China send the profits to the US when they purchase oil from Unocal's reserves in Asia? No

    I have a gut instinct that the huge American trade deficits with China, and Washington's diminishing economic leverage with China made this deal already before it was announced via the White House saying they would not block it.

    How can anyone say it is against national security and on what grounds?

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    • What does your gut tell you about the fair value of UCL? I guess you're assuming that both bidders are at the limits of the fair value of UCL.

      • 1 Reply to valuator2
      • I would say that US bidder adds in savings of combining operations in US, but acquisition cost must be based upon cost of a barrel during lifetime of reserve depletion.

        Who would be more likely to build a needed US refinery and maintaining "competition" in the US?

        I cannot see how the Chinese want to further enrich themselves via the US wholesale market for unleaded gasoline.

        It would be more palatable if this chinese company was 100% private.

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      Chevron Could Raise Unocal Bid Or Boost Cash Portion
      06.24.05, 10:26 AM ET

      Tear Sheet | Chart | News

      Standard & Poor's Equity Research reiterated a "buy" rating on Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) after Unocal (nyse: UCL - news - people ) said it has received a waiver from Chevron to engage in talks with CNOOC (nyse: CEO - news - people ). The waiver is valid at any time until the date of the Unocal shareholder vote on the proposed merger with Chevron, but the date of the Unocal shareholder meeting and vote has not yet been set. Unocal's board has already recommended the Chevron transaction to Unocal shareholders and that recommendation remains in effect. "We view the CNOOC bid as pricey at near $67 per share (or $11.5 per proved barrel of oil equivalent), but below the $70 per share some had expected, and we believe it is not high enough to derail the Chevron deal," S&P Equity Research said. "We think Chevron will likely either raise its bid (which we now value near $60 per share), or increase the cash portion of the bid (since many of Unocal's shares are held by tax-deferred organizations)."

      • 2 Replies to atlas90502
      • I don't know how raising the cash % will win the bid. Even if CVX does 100% cash offer without raising the bid, it is still a $60 cash offer, far below Cnooc's $67 cash offer.

        There is only one way CVX can get UCL, raising the bid.

        If oil goes up, UCL share price goes up, CVX has to raise the bid.

        If Oil goes down, then Cnooc'S $67 cash offer becomes far better than CVX's stock offer. (it might drop to $52).

        The CVX CEO is a joke. He still thinks he can steal UCL for cheap. No matter what is going to happen to the overall oil market in the near future, he's not going to get UCL.

      • they should raise the bid