Scotch, what amazed me in this article was the broadband expert's comment/opinion that SBC and BLS's hybrid DSL/fiber plan will only yield enough bandwith comparable to what the cable companies were providing in 2002!
And now its 2005 with HDTV coming on mainstream. The expert noted that SBC is especially cutting it close in terms of meeting consumers' expectations for bandwith delivery. What will they do when consumers request hookup for two or more HDTV sets in the home, a broadband internet connection and telephone service? Will performance fall short of comsumer expectations and cause a high churn rate? And can you imagine consumers' reactions to this problem after they spend thousands of dollars on new HDTV sets? And by the time SBC and BLS finally get around to deploying their triple-play plans, cable may by then have the answer with a new and better performing Docsis 3.0.
Seems to me SBC and BLS's band-aid approach, designed to control costs, will fail. They'll have no choice but to follow VZ's lead. Actually the best news for MRV would be an accelerated adoption of Docsis 3.0 by the cable co's in 2006. That would change the game completely.
Until this plays out, lets hope the ethernet networking side of MRV's biz picks up and VZ is on time in beginning delivery of TV service by the start of 2006.
SBC is projecting that they can provide an "acceptable" level of broadband that fulfills the needs of its mainstream users while losing a small percentage of techno- and videophiles of HDTV to cable. They are still unconvinced that VZ will ever see profitability on its buildout.