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Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF Message Board

  • mule_slime_jaws mule_slime_jaws Oct 14, 2004 12:52 PM Flag

    anybody getting excited about SCRa/b?

     

    Or ABFI- is it another Nextcard, or another Metris?

    And Trep's weird little Swiss/Yukon whatthehell is getting harder to resist too.

    I'd like to buy yer Merck at twelve times, but sheesh every time the blue chips start looking attractive, there's always some cheaper smaller more toxic crap out there that starts batting its eyelashes at me. "Hey, there, big boy. My, what large eyes and teeth you have. Can I stroke those long lovely ears of yours? Carrot? Sugar cube?"

    And once again I succumb...

    This topic is deleted.
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    • Sea Containers unconsolidated companies, principally GeSeaCo and OEH:

      Assets - $ 2'163'985'000.00
      Equity - $ 733'998'000.00
      Revenues - $ 419'934'000.00 in 2003
      Ebit - $ 99'468'000.00 in 2003
      $ 70'151'000.00 half 2004
      Earnings $ 30'868'000.00 in 2003
      $ 38'551'000.00 half 2004

      Sherwood gave a hint relating to what this is really worth:

      SeaGeCo - $ 1'000'000'000.00 in 2006 - IPO
      OEH - $ 855'000'000.00 at least

      Sea Containers has a 50 % stake in SeaGeCo and a 42 % stake in OEH.

      The unconsolidated companies could be worth
      $ 37 per Sea Containers share, if Sherwood is right.

    • Sea Containers sold Isle of Man Steam Packet Company, part of his ferries operations, in 2003:

      Selling price - 240 mios

      IOMSTPC revenue - ~ 84 mios
      IOMSTPC ebit - ~ 19.7 mios
      IOMSTPC ebt - ~ 8.5 mios

      Following this sale, Sea Containers indicated that they used the proceeds to repay debt and thus annual interest savings would amount to
      21 mios.
      Not a bad sale indeed: 19.7 mios of ebit becoming 21 mios earnings.

      And then the following:

      The same year, Silja, a ferries operator, became wholly owned by Sea Containers:

      Purchase price : 592,8 mios

      Cash paid : 211.1 mios
      Liabilities assumed: 381.7 mios

      Revenue 2003 : 619,0 mios
      Revenue 2002 : 493.0 mios
      Revenue 2001 : 457.0 mios
      Ebit 2003 : 43,0 mios
      Ebit 2002 : 54,0 mios
      Ebit 2001 : 41.0 mios

      Then the following:

      Liabilities restructured: 498,0 mios
      Interest paid at Euribor + 1.625 %

      Shrewd!

    • Well it isn't really clear if the core businesses are generating cash or not. All of the cash provided by operations and the cash from sale of assets went into repaying debt, cap ex, acquisitions, and increasing working capital. If the core business isn't really generating cash, it isn't worth anything. Considering that it is a highly leveraged mediocre business, I don't see much to get excited about.

      And yet after generating $98M from operations and $229M from sale of assets in 2003, the company borrowed another $52M. And this was after raising another $69M from the sale of OEH shares in 2002. And they also issued $25M of equity in 2003 and filed a shelf for $150M more debt. Where is all this cash going?

      The last I looked the debt wasn't at very good rates, 7-13% IIRC.

      OEH is a superior business in terms of margins, returns on capital, etc. but it isn't really a cash cow either. But I don't blame OEH for wanting to be out from under the lead umbrella of SCRA.

      I can see the net asset angle on it, but I'd probably only be willing to buy SCRA for equal or less than the value of the OEH shares.

    • ROC ttm is barely 4% for SCRa. Not exactly a company to get excited about, eh?

    • "And once again I succumb..."

      Yes, that's always true. There are always 'cheap' alternatives. These are more often trading tulips than planting tulips. In these circumstances, one is usually leaving oneself open to the vagaries of the market. �Will someone pay more� is the question.

      Given that, what are some trading tulips that would might turn planting tulips. Therein lies future returns. Feel free to share.

 
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