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Apache Corp. Message Board

  • MINCE38 MINCE38 May 25, 2004 6:49 PM Flag

    crash coming????? maybe not...

    here is my reply to what someone said as to why reits have gotten toasted. It is appropriate to repeat here as well. The fact that stocks with very low p/e's have not risen with excellent earnings releases this past month is a bad sign. Does it signify the end? Probably not. Read on:
    Unwinding of carry trading???? What does that mean in english? And whatever that is, how does that account for the fact that many, many major stocks with low p/e's are down way more than the 8% or so decline the naz is showing. Explain that. And to the poster who thinks a crash is bizarre, imagine telling the same thing to people in september of 29 or in 87. It always comes when there is no reason for it.I am not saying it will happen just that there have been many signs which I have shared with you guys thruout the year. My website Maybe some of you should read it first before you call me nuts. I am only saying that every outcome has a proabability %, including the dow going to 4000 in 2 years or the dow going to 20000 in 2 years. All have % probabilities. I am just saying a crash is not totally remote. And Robert Orechter is right. Every market in history must crash eventually, even if its done so before.Or...if its never done so before. That will one day include real estate and oil. I do own a nice piece of EQY however and i predict Chaim has some very nice surprises in store for the shareholders. Its how the market reacts to it that can be the problem.

    I tell you all now, most insiders are losing money with their purchases in every sector since january and especially since march. (CHK has had much huge insider buying at the 13.40 range and its an energy co and it cant make headway!)Wanna fight that trend? I had a guy pay me a considerable sum to show him a chart of how much insider buyers actually lost in last 3 months. Staggering!


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