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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Message Board

  • srlabelle2000 srlabelle2000 Apr 19, 2012 10:26 PM Flag

    I think we should be getting some sort of

    Price target bump from Segilman at S&P. He seems to have grudgingly lifted the target from $60 to $62 upon the Xl acquisition.
    As close as I can tell his methodology puts him at $62.4, which he rounds down to $62... With UNH's elevated 2012 projection, I bet he takes his target to $65 pretty quick here.
    We should be getting a raft of new analysis over the next few weeks as the other companies in the sector start to report. If they all pull off big positive reserve development and downward revisions of rebate expectations we should see some upside in the analyst's price targets.
    The dividend decision will be interesting.... The way UNH has front loaded this year's share buy back I can't help but wonder if they anticipate a nice dividend pop making buy back more expensive going forward.
    If AEt and WLP hit their marks next week we should share in their lime light (just the way they enjoyed UNH's coat tails today).
    $60 might happen then or after the dividend announcement but in any case I think it's not too far off (but I am always wrong with these guesses)
    As always, macro events can sink us or the Pacificare bogey man might jump up and bite us with a headline risk (if the cal oah pops us with some big ruling we may take a hit but I will view it as a buying opportunity because, no matter what the administrative law judge or Cal. Commissioner of Insurance say, there is no way a fine 1000 or 10,000 times larger than any other fine ever administered for these sorts of administrative oversights will ever stand up in federal court.....) on the other hand, if the Pacificare matter is resolved for a reasonable few million dollars I think we will see some upside.
    I agree with the guy at Credit Suisse, this is a goldilocks moment for the insurers and UNH is the best positioned of them all......
    Good luck
    Steve

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    • S&P raised the UNH target to $65 this morning....
      Now I wonder what Matthew Borsch(Goldman) and Carl Macdonald (Citi) are going to do.... They are, I think, the low target price holders.
      If anybody here has access to Goldman's take on UNH I'd love to look it over.
      Steve

 
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