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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Message Board

  • kahr1234 kahr1234 Apr 22, 2012 1:24 PM Flag

    What's your sell point

    About to hit $60

    My initial I'm out pt was $55, well clearly - I'm still not out then I told myself it'll be $60 and we're almost there and I'm wavering again on whether to get rid of my long term holdings or to stay on for the ride.

    I'm also wondering if there'll be another dividend bump anytime soon - that would be nice too for anyone continuing to hold.

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    • I'm almost positive we'll see a dividend bump in mid May, after the annual shareholder's meeting. I assume that it will rise to at least 20 cents/qtr.
      "Sell point" is a tuff call... I agree with the analysts who say $70 is possible over the next 12 months but we have seen from experience that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip. I think that any sudden pop will be followed by a profit taking drop.
      I'm definitely reaching an inflection point between shorting puts(which I've been doing for the last three years with good results) and selling covered calls with strike prices a bit beyond where I expect the share price to reach.
      With a little luck we could break through $60 this week. $63 would be no big surprise between now and the end of the quarter. I bet that the window dressers will be out in force in the last week of June. If all goes well the last week of June might be our magical moment. We'll have the dividend fund money managers clamoring for shares, the less successful money managers looking to tidy up their second quarter 13Fs by owning a few shares of a winner like UNH and the Obama administration will be doing everything they can think of to show folks that they love insurance companies and wouldn't dream of messing with folks health insurance (because last time around the "I hate health insurers!" strategy didn't get the dems many votes).
      So, for what it's worth, I think we have two months of sand in our hourglass and some room to run.
      It may turn out that $60 is tuff to get through (like $30 was)...
      We may run into some sort of Macro issue(like a war with Iran or a complete meltdown of Europe) or even a company specific headline risk like a sudden decision in the Pacificare matter, but, for the moment, I think that waiting and watching a bit before taking your chips off the table is a reasonable move.
      Good luck....

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