Can any one explain the logic behind this? The result of Cohort 3 was ok, and yet they could not raise money above $4.8/share. Unless another shoe will drop, the incoming financing will mark the worst one in the history. We will see who will participate this after recent 100 to 1 reverse split.
So, the notion here is the trend of SP is down even though the efficacy is UP?????
The problem with combination is toxicity. Senesco will stop cellular division and induce apoptosis. (thats what the gene does). The only reason its not highly toxic to other b-cells is because the arginine (plasma dna) needs the death message (found in all cancers). Both of the main drugs affect all cells..(just like chemo) which causes damage. The Damage (or stress) makes healthy cell signal the death message (hopefully not enough to induce apoptosis on its one). So...in combination, it is very likely senesce will start shutting down healthy cells as well.
If it doesn't have a significant impact as a stand alone, the toxicity risk increases dramatically if they need combination.
however, given how the gene works, and Senesco approach in manipulating its function we should see significant tumor shrinkage. The question is will results be in 4 or 8 months.
Do not invest thinking the warrants will be in the money
At $5.45 (pre financings) the company was worth $17.2 million (and im being generous with the price at 5.45.) Post financing, including the cash, the company should be worth $22.45million. But there will be 4.9 million shares outstanding, plus 1.8 million for the $3 warrants (only one in the money when u do the math)..that puts the share value of $3.28 cents..even if you give them a premium because they have money in the till..I will give you $3.50. This is dilutive effect of the financing they just did..and Im being overly nice on my assumption.
It is more likely this will trade between 2.80 and 3.20, depending on how much the new investors want to derisk their money..and they will be.
The three year warrants are not getting exercised. (no one is that stupid). The $4 dollar warrants are not going to be in the money (most likely). That leaves the $3 warrants, which would put in another $5.4 million..yet it is very likely these will be out of the money also.
This is straight math. If I use a 30day average, the stock's FMV is at 2.75 based on financing term
Tliuall, I assume you are long, and long frustrated. So as a coinvestor, let's try to dissect this. So, if you and I were part of an angel investment group called TLLG and stumbled on Senesco, the company you partly own (through your shares). Or, we have been partly owning the company also. What would we discover at this time and how would we feel. Let's try to wear this other hat. We are happy that they have a potential game changing technology and so far they have a safe dose and growing efficacy. TLLG decides we want to help the company stay solvent, make a big investment, take the risk and hopefully reap huge rewards both financially and for cancer victims. We differ in that TLLG is very well capitalized and other shareholders and Senesco are not. This gives us leverage. But we don't want to abuse this and destroy the company either.
So the stock usually sells lately for 4 or 5 dollars. So we offer to put up 5 million dollars to get shares at 3 dollars. This assures their financial future and gets us in at a good discount. And if all goes well we want another similar block at 3 dollars and 2 more at about the current price of 4. We agree to exercise most of the warrants in 6 months so it is not an ongoing burden for the company.
The company knows that if their drug works they are now good to go financially secure to pursue their science.
Now small shareholders can jump on at about 4 dollars a share and join TLLG. No warrants though, that is the privilege of TLLG since we came with 5 million dollars and probably another 20 million.
So all this looks OK. Let's just hope the science works.