don't know if anyone else gets the paper edition of the Financial Times, but Chevron took out a double page color add with an open letter. . .essentially they confirmed Peak Oil, and said oil is running out. . .China and India, etc. are using more, etc. etc. . .no news to people on this board, but when the general public starts realizing that Peak Oil is reality, all hell will break loose. . .$100 oil for sure.
"Peak oil" is not a new term. I remember it being used in the early 80's and even maybe before that.
I suppose anything is possible, but if you REALLY believe that oil will rise to $100 per bbl., how long do you think $100 oil can be maintained before the world economies collapse--if they have not already collapsed on the way up to $100?
I begin to wonder just how much longer it may be until our own economy begins to show the strain of $60 oil, let alone $100 oil, or any place between.
True, despite higher oil prices the past year, our economy has grown, but $50-60 oil is a very recent phenomonon. The average price for oil for all of 2004 was $37.41 per bbl.(source--History & Analysis of Crude Oil Prices from WTRG Economics).
Not only do we see what $60 oil is doing at the gas pumps, but we are beginning to see what it is doing to other things dependent on oil.
It is even beginning to become noticeable in some food products at the super markets--namely fresh produce. Last year, I paid $1.50 for a 5 pound bag of naval oranges at one of the larger groves here in Florida. This year the same bag sold for $2.25 to $2.50. I was told that it was not due to a shortage of oranges, but due to higher production costs--mainly fuel for farm impliments, in addition to increased costs of fertilize, pesticides etc. from suppliers. These increases,also blamed on higher fuel prices. This has carried over to much of the produce here in Florida. No shortage of straw berries, but the prices were almost twice as high as last year.
Oil may continue to rise, but there will come a point at which the rise will begin to have serious effects on our economy. I fear that point may not be too far off.
As to the airline situation, my wife and I are flying to Moscow in October. Got a letter from our travel agent today saying that a $40 per person fuel charge was being added on to our invoice. No hardship for me, but when oil prices start to add to the every day necessities of food and gasoline to get to work, it can begin to hurt a lot of people.
"If we see $100 ( I assume you meant for a barrel of crude oil ) then sell every stock you own, dow will be at 100 nasdaq 5, etc. etc. etc...."
If we woke up tommorrow and saw WTI at $100/barrel, then I agree that the general markets would probable drop...a lot ( like 400 to 600 points ), while everyone tried to figure out what happened. I appreciate your use of wild panic to predict Dow 100 and Nasdaq 5. Of course BPT and all other oil related stocks would go to the moon.
What is far more likely is that, over time - like years, oil will continue to increase. Twenty years ago oil was at $10 and now it is at $60. The planet keeps spinning, the stock market hasn't dived, people keep driving cars/SUVs, airlines still fly.