there has been no "pooling" of cold air in the Yukon and Alaska until this week. . .after the cold air sets up in the Yukon, it generally moves to the lower 48 within a week or two . . .so minus 10 in Chicago by Feb 1st, and 5 above at JFK. . .then the perfect storm of cold weather, Osama, Iraq and Nigeria will take oil to 100.