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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

  • roundrobinjack roundrobinjack Dec 19, 2012 4:01 PM Flag

    Interim Distribution and Value Update, Pt 2

    2013 Forecast Distributions [Prior Q estimates]:

    Jan: $2.34 [89.7k Avg daily production @ $88.66 Avg daily WTI]
    Apr: $2.72 [over 90k Avg daily production @ $111.50 Avg daily WTI]
    Jul: $2.335 [80.7k Avg daily production @ $102.79 Avg daily WTI]
    Oct: $1.705 [58.3k Avg daily production @ $102.73 Avg daily WTI]

    Cumm Total Distributions = $219 (or equivalent) PV@6% = $106

    Note: Unlike seeking alpha's simplistic use of SEC-mandated projected future production forecasts, I do not hold prices to the current level for the foreseeable future. I also compute PV at 6% (instead of 10%) to reflect a more realistic inflation/margin rate. I also expect, BPT units to to be bought out at or near to this remaining PV only when it is economic to reduce administrative costs (when distributions fall below $1 annually). By that time (2052), the contribution to the current PV of the distributions bought out is insignificant.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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