Two things have changed significantly since my last post:
Production has continued to rise, and it now looks like it will come in at an average daily rate over the 90k (about 90.5k). However, thanks to the cliff and disappointment for those expecting a quicker end, the rally in WTI has been less than I had projected. I have revised my Q4 average WTI to $88.19 and next Q to $110.67 (assuming a long-term compromise when the new congress opens).
On this basis, the Jan distribution is forecast at $2.33 and Apr at $2.70.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm at $2.41 with production above 90m and WTI at $91 for the rest of month so might be a little better. Looking forward to your more detailed analysis and future projections.
I'm sell above $100 and buy below $75 although I'm a little overweighted at present.
With WTI for the 1st Qtr headed for something south of $95/Bbl, how much does that reduce your distribution estimate? My simple back of the envelope number is $2.40 if production remains above 90MBOPD and WTI stays above $90/Bbl.