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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

  • boonvilleaggie boonvilleaggie Dec 19, 2013 4:28 PM Flag

    Jan Distribution

    My calculations get ~$2.35 @ 88 MMBBLPD and WTI $97. Anybody else?

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    • It just came out, $2.52, NICE!

    • Should find out this afternoon. My estimate is $2.34-$2.36

    • Well quarter over - any estimates of the distribution ? i would say $2.30-$2.35.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Boonvilleaggie ............ i agree with your $2.35, i actually think it will be $2.35 to $2.45, but my numbers/assumptions are a little different in getting to that level. BP's share of the daily production levels for Oct was 78.7k barrels and the price of oil averaged $100, for November, BP's share of the daily production was 84.6k barrels with the average price of oil $94 (basically) and for December production, as of yesterday, has averaged 84.4k barrels (however yesterday production did hit 89.5k barrels for BP) and i am assumiong oil will average $97/barrel for December (average is a little higher as of today and hopefully will stay over $97). So i agree with you that oil will average $97/ barrel for the quarter, then adjusting this for chargable costs (i estimate $30.50/barrel) and taxes (i estimate ($25.50/barrel), leaves us with a net $41/barrel for the distribution. I estimate that the daily production for the quarter will average 82.5k barrels for BP (using only 84.4k for December), with BPT's daily share at 13.6k/barrel or 1.250 million barrels for the quarter. With a net of $41 for the distribution times the 1.250 m barrels, results in $51.3 million available for the distribution or $2.38 (this may be a few cents conservative based on the recent rise in both the producton levels and the price of oil). So we get the same answer with a few different assumptions. All is all a good dividend and a 2-4 % increase over 2012's 4th quarter.

 
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