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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

  • tomn5570 tomn5570 Feb 3, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    Jan results

    First month of the quarter is in the books. Comparing the first month of this quarter to the first month of the last quarter (Oct 2013), production was up about 10% and price of oil was down about 6%, so overall January was an ok to slightly positive month compared to October. Another good thing is that the price of oil was the highest in Oct last quarter, $100.54, while, for the month of November, oil was at $93.86 and December at $97.63. I don't expect the production to be any higher in Feb and March than in Nov and Dec, so hopefully the price of oil will stay above $95 - may be tough with the current state of affairs.

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    • Hi Guys ,

      Can someone give me a heads up on the safety of the div.?

      thinkuing about adding to my IRA
      Thanks

      Janet

      • 2 Replies to suadela24
      • Janet, I would be very cautious about buying right now. Today, we are having the start of the mid quarter bear raid. If you look back to last quarter, today's price drop is happening almost to the day as last quarter's price drop and will last about 10 trading days. In some respect's, it is not all bad as some fund wanted in and the price was starting to get out hand with it reaching almost $84. They must think it is a pretty good buy in the $81's. There is still a good chance this will drop to $80. As for the distribution, you really need to follow the price of oil and the level of production very closely each quarter. So far with about 2/3's of this quarter in the books, the distribution level looks about equal to last quarter's (not taking into consideration any upside or downside to the new production tax), but a lot can change in March.

      • You receive a distribution, which is based on the volume produced up to 90000 barrels. So the WTI price impacts as do expenses and the contractual expenses and the state taxes. The distribution is generally regarded as ok until 2018 when the contractual expenses escalate. Suggest you read the 10Q and go back on this board- you might screen for Lizahuang as she seems to articulate the issue better-without the hyoerbole.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
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