BOARD- Corn is not crashing, and even if Euro in recession and China slows down and if USA produce bumper crop, I don't see see Corn going below $4-4.50, even though CEO of POT stated only 3 yrs ago corn at $4.00 was Nirvanna. Nat Gas pricing is also not anticipated to rise meaningfully. What is crashing is Ammonia and Urea and UAN prices--the things TNH sells. The Urea basket was $535 Sept 23, today it is $357. Ammonia was in the $600's and now in the $400's. UAN pricing is down over 35% in last 60 days-talk to any fert dealer to confirm or go Farm Futures to confirm. Supply is increasing at existing plants through-out USA and Trinada and Venez and anywhere their is Nat Gas supply --the number of acreage expected to be planted this spring is only a tad above the spring of 2010--that was when the UREA basket price was $240 and TNH margins substantially lower. Tnh will do just fine in 2012, it will probably distribute $7-9, but at that level TNH LP Units will revert to more normal double digit price, still a ton better than the value of the plant in early 2007 when TNH LP units sold for $30 something. Good Luck on your timing--I was long TNH and now out, and have no real ax to grind--just giving opinion that it nearly impossible for any single asset plant to produce a pure commodity like Ammonia at 65% margins for very long--no industry can do that. Good news is that corn farmers and wheat farmers and USA consumer will benefit, cereal pricing at store will benefit, as will chicken,hog and beef produces--so look at Nitrogen crashing as a good thing for America.
real1diot, you just got into my ignore list. The AH price was for 260 shares, maybe somebody needed the money an decided to sell at a really low price to ensure that his or her AH sale would go through. bye.
Board--Hmmmmmmmmmmmm why is TNH down $8.00 in afterhour trading. Uan pricing, which is majoity of what TNH's single asset plant sells, is now in the high $200's AND CRASHING, Urea is also crashing--both CRASHING, and some smart people think it could go to $180 per 32% ton by springtime?? I personally don't think it will go that low because ethanol still subsidized for another 6-8 months. If that does happen however, TNH is a $60-80 value LP Unit asset, at least I don't think it will go to 2007 pricing of $30 something price like one analysts thinks. All of this would be great news for USA citizen and USA farmer however, so big positives, be happy, just like it would be positve for gas PRICES TO GO TO $2.80, but I don't see that either--I'd be happy with $3.20 at the pump. I buy some nitrogen for small operation and waiting for prices to drop another 30% before I will order any. Good Luck on your timing on when to get out. Read Farm Futures and Fertilzerworks to verify prices are crashing.