You folks don't seem to realize that the distributions for this company can fluctuate wildly. Guess what happens to the distribution if nat gas triples in price, and yes it could happen over the next few years NO MATTER WHO IS IN POWER.
This is going down. At some point I may be a buyer but other MLPs with better yields are also taking it on the chin and are much better buys.
I guess you're right. The 200 day moving average ($185) doesn't seem to be holding. The part I don't get is that nothing significant changed in the past month when it was valued 60% greater than now. Every business has uncertainties and what-if scenarios. Did something change in the past month that makes nat gas tripling in the short term much more likely than before? Perhaps I missed something.
I added here ($184). I'm thinking the 200 day moving average at $185 will provide some support in this area. The price action is a bit scary but over-done. This is not some over-hyped tech/fad stock, it provides an essential product and has a solid proven business plan. Overall market panic over europe, etc could take it down more, but i'm not counting on it.
What will the future distributions be? I can imagine the cost of production will be lower based on nat. gas. Large crop in the ground with falling price. I can imagine nitrogen sales will be large in 2012. Even at 5 corn and good yields, cash flow from farmers would be strong going into 2013.