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Whiting USA Trust I Message Board

  • dr.tjm42 dr.tjm42 Dec 15, 2013 9:57 AM Flag

    Everyone loses.... period

    Long-term dividend investors lose: WHX is a trust that, at current production rates, will end at $0 after 5 more distributions in early 2015. Every distribution removes value that will never come back to the trust. Long-term holding is, literally, a zero sum game. This information come directly from the company's own 10-K "warning".

    Long-term value seekers lose: The underlying value of WHX is more than a 50% discount to recent price. Value destruction is guaranteed. You get hit twice. First, the dividend gets pulled out of the stock automatically so you lose that amount on the stock. (i.e if the stock closed at $4 today and pays a 50 cents dividend, on the ex-div date, the stock AUTOMATICALLY opens at least 50 cents lower.) Secondly, the stock is going to zero AUTOMATICALLY by June 2015 so at some point, you are guaranteed to lose all of your current investment. Whatever your buy-in number is (basis), count on losing 100% of that.

    Short-term dividend seekers lose: WHX has fallen by more than its distribution on 92% of past ex-dividend dates since inception, often by double or more of the actual distribution. Short-term dividend seeking loses money and there's no way to avoid it. You can't sell it fast enough on the ex-div date to make any money. If you buy the day before ex-div to get on record and the dividend is 50 cents, the stock will automatically open AT LEAST 50 cents lower when it resumes trading in the morning and 92% of the time it's much more than that.

    Heck, even the guys who know all of this and would love to short it can't because everyone in the world knows (including every SEC filing from WHX) that it's going to zero and if your firm can borrow the shares, you'll get killed with the borrowing cost and fees to do so.

    How many times have you ever heard of a stock that guarantees longs and shorts BOTH lose?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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WHX
2.21-0.06(-2.64%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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