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UTStarcom Holdings Corp. Message Board

  • This is the Yahoo! Message Board about UTStarcom, Inc. (NasdaqNM: UTSI), where you can discuss the future prospects of the company and share information about it with others. This board is not connected in any way with the company, and any messages are solely the opinion and responsibility of the poster.

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    • Looks like final "shake-out" is under way.
      Could touch below 6 but only intraday. I am playing "counter trend," my specialty. Time to accumulate, now! This is where men are seperated from boys and girls! Usually right 8/10 (80%); only been wrong when "big boys" decided distribute, no sign of that now (volume)! It looks like margin, pain, panic selling... mental game!!! Remember, what goes around--comes around!!!

    • All signs seem pointing to a real slowdown in the China PAS market, at least in growth rate if not yet in absolute market size. Mobile goes calling party pay, in reality if not yet in name. Competition heats up. etc etc.

      As all industries go, the PAS market will not be any different -- margins usually fall first, then volume growth rate, next profits in dollar amount, last a total wipe-out in profitability.

      The harder questions though are: does the lowly pe of "only" 19 or so in utsi already reflect such a slowdown? to what extend? will its non-China businesses grow fast enough to plug the hole? And I seem to get the answers to all these questions in our CFO's actions: he sold all, as soon as he can have hands on the options. Not yet the CEO, to draw some comfort.

      Views and numbers will be most appreciated.

    • From the leading business paper in China (The 21st Centry World Economic Times), carried at Sina:

      http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/t/2002-11-09/1821149043.shtml

      (Original in Chinese)
      China Tel Shanghai launched its latest promotion - for RMB1900 (about $220) you get a home fixed line phone and a PAS handset with the same number and fixed rate.

      • 1 Reply to numberssstalk
      • As I have understood things, Shanghai is one of the areas from which MII had excluded 'little smart'. Could this be a replay of China Netcom's attempt to launch 'little smart' in Beijing? MII quickly shut down that attempt.

        The attempt to offer 'little smart' in Beijing appeared to have been made with Lucent equipment. At the time UTSI denied they had any interest in selling equipment for use in any of the 4 forbidden cities. So does the article state that it is 'little smart' or PAS which is being launched?

    • from today's Beijing Morning Post, carried at Sina:

      http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/t/2002-09-11/1022137953.shtml

      summary of the article:

      China Electronic Communication Industrial Group Co (CEC), a leading Chinese state-owned communication companu under the MII, is heavily investing in 3G handset research and is expected to have 3G handsets ready by 2003. Their efforts focus on 2 out of the 3 internationally recognized 3G standard, WCDMA and TD-SCDMA (interesting, no CDMA2000 in their table.)

      The CEC led 3G consortium has two important partners, Intel and UTStarcom. The President of CEC commented, "UTStarcom has excellent 3G system and softswitch technology; Intel for its chips."

      Recently, the consortium bought a Philips 3G lab. After this expansion, they have 600 engineers and become the largest 3G research team in the world.

      • 1 Reply to numberssstalk
      • The story all along has been that MII is not testing any CDMA 3G system. They are only testing WCDMA and TC-SCDMA.

        This is one reason that concern about CDMA 450 is misplaced. There is no 3G path for CDMA450. China Telecom and China Netcom would need 2G licenses to install CDMA450. China Mobile and China Unicom have 2G licenses, but do not buy any PAS. So the required plan for CDMA450 is that CT and CN get 2G licenses for a technology which has no approved growth path to 3G in China.

    • numbersss, a bit old but good:

      on general and us
      http://cyberatlas.internet.com/markets/broadband/article/0,,10099_802141,00.html

      on europe
      http://www.screendigest.com/rep_broadbandnet.htm

      on asia
      http://www.aprg.com/asp/pub_Broadband.asp

      to add my 2 cents, asia is actually leading the world. both in broadband market development and equipment players. japan korea taiwan hong kong and singapore are leading the world on infrastructure buildup, economies of scale, services, etc.

      among the players, utsi was nobody a couple of years ago and now #2 in the world. i do think ip-dsl has every edge to win the world over in broadband. and if my prediction is true, utsi will be propelled to a commanding #1 position in broadband like its position in pas. the brief technical discussion part of utsi's announcement provides a good insight why - COST and RETURN:

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020904/sfw103_1.html

    • http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/e/2002-08-27/0812134841.shtml

      it's in Chinese but to sum it up:

      Japan launched an "Asia Broadband Initiative" in the China-sponsored "Globalization and IT Development Forum" today. The news report (by China's top official news agency New China News, carried on Sina.com) also mentioned that Korea and Japan are already the top 2 broadband penetrated countries in the world yet the region (Asia) as a whole still lacks the world badly and is in dire need of regional co-ordination and push to make Asia broadband ready and info flow heavy.

      Well, when the two leading Asian countries (China and Japan) sign up, we should see big push and huge opportunities for equipment suppliers such as UTSI.

      on UTSI in broadband:
      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020820/sftu070_1.html

      on UTSI in softswitches:
      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020822/sfth058_1.html

      enjoy!

    • a Chinese telecom investment company that's set up and controled by former MII people was trying to buy the stake held by Softbank but Softbank is not willing to get out. a Japanese source indicated that UTSI is one of only two or three Softbank holdings that they have reduced ownership for cash but not willing to divest, at least not at these prices.

      not sure how much truth in this. but I think the company perhaps should try to facilitate the rumored transaction, part or all of the shares still owned by Softbank.

      when I first heard this yesterday in a chat with a friend of mine in Beijing, I didn't give it much credit. but on second thought, it actually makes every sense, to UTSI to us shareholders to the Chinese to all.

      the Chinese are smart; they must have sensed the value in UTSI and what UTSI has done in PAS and what it can do in broadband, softswitches, 3G.

      any comments? anyone hear anything on the same line?

    • If you think the following might help clear somebody's confusion, recommend.

      1. PAS & UTSI's growth rates?

      China has 1.3 bn people, PAS addresses the middle i.e. the largest body of this 1.3bn society.

      Let's assume 50% of half of these 1.3bn get PAS in 5 years time, that'll be 325m i.e. slightly more than the entire US population. Interestingly, it took less than five years to get more than 50% of China's richest 20% population signed up GSM.

      Let's further assume UTSI's share of this PAS equipment market drop half from current 60~70% to "only" 1/3.

      Conclusion: UTSI will support some 108m PAS users in 5 years time, compared with 3m at 12/31/2001.

      For an annualized 105% in PAS sub. Not bad.

      What do I believe? It won't be all 105% every year in the next 5 years. More likely will be 200% or so in 2002 or 2003, then 50~100% annually in the next three years. Again, it's like what we have seen in GSM China. It's also what China Telecom plans for, according to a recent People's Daily online article.

      Classical "S" curve growth.

      2. PAS Data not allowed by Chinese government?

      I believe that's a statement by that JP something poster a few posts ago. All I would suggest is that if you really care, don't speculate; you should spare 60 minutes listening to the latest conference call (still on record I believe.) In the call, the CSFB analyst asked to what extend UTSI's PAS Data success in Taiwan can be repeated in China (only BIGGER of corse.) UTSI said, to the effect, that, it's already offered in Xian (the former capital city of China) as a test. It's received very well and UTSI believed that China Telecom will expand to all the 200-odd cities that have already offered voice PAS.

      3. Softbank selling?

      Stop guessing. It's simple: for a 10+% holder (which Softbank is in UTSI) to sell anything, it has to file with the SEC first. NO such filing. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Softbank increases its holding a few % to just over 50% so that it can consolidate UTSI results offsetting other sorry businesses.

      Well, that's all folks. Be careful! And good luck to all (yes, I'm long but to the shorts too and may I suggest that for shorts in particular, once pure luck delivers a buck or two to you, take it or you might regret. Time is not on your side with a super charged grower like UTSI.)

      • 2 Replies to numberssstalk
      • 1. PAS & UTSI's growth rates?

        China has 1.3 bn people, PAS addresses the middle i.e. the largest body of this 1.3bn society.

        Let's assume 50% of half of these 1.3bn get PAS in 5 years time, that'll be 325m i.e. slightly more than the entire US population. Interestingly, it took less than five years to get more than 50% of China's richest 20% population signed up GSM.

        Let's further assume UTSI's share of this PAS equipment market drop half from current 60~70% to "only" 1/3.

        Conclusion: UTSI will support some 108m PAS users in 5 years time, compared with 3m at 12/31/2001.

        For an annualized 105% in PAS sub. Not bad.

        What do I believe? It won't be all 105% every year in the next 5 years. More likely will be 200% or so in 2002 or 2003, then 50~100% annually in the next three years. Again, it's like what we have seen in GSM China. It's also what China Telecom plans for, according to a recent People's Daily online article.

        Classical "S" curve growth.

        2. PAS Data not allowed by Chinese government?

        I believe that's a statement by that JP something poster a few posts ago. All I would suggest is that if you really care, don't speculate; you should spare 60 minutes listening to the latest conference call (still on record I believe.) In the call, the CSFB analyst asked to what extend UTSI's PAS Data success in Taiwan can be repeated in China (only BIGGER of corse.) UTSI said, to the effect, that, it's already offered in Xian (the former capital city of China) as a test. It's received very well and UTSI believed that China Telecom will expand to all the 200-odd cities that have already offered voice PAS.

        3. Softbank selling?

        Stop guessing. It's simple: for a 10+% holder (which Softbank is in UTSI) to sell anything, it has to file with the SEC first. NO such filing. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Softbank increases its holding a few % to just over 50% so that it can consolidate UTSI results offsetting other sorry businesses.

        Well, that's all folks. Be careful! And good luck to all (yes, I'm long but to the shorts too and may I suggest that for shorts in particular, once pure luck delivers a buck or two to you, take it or you might regret. Time is not on your side with a super charged grower like UTSI.)

      • ...those are idioc statements. Most of the population who is going to buy mobile phones have already purchased them, and as the growth rate sloows, China will begin to fall in line with the rest of the world's mobile growth rates. Of course, there will always be new subscribers and new services to attract current subscribers as well.

        However, its dumbass statements like "1.3b people" and using that as a basis for a potential market in a country you obviously know nothing about, make your ignoirance all too evident. That is what all the foriegn companies who rushed into China during the late 80's andearly 90's thouugh, and that market never materialized.

    • http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/011129/sfth043_1.html

      UTStarcom Selected by China's Ministry of Information Industry to Participate In 3G Technical Trial of WCDMA Standard
      Phase One of Trials to Begin in January 2002
      ALAMEDA, Calif., Nov. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- On November 1, 2001, after a formal evaluation process, UTStarcom Inc., (Nasdaq: UTSI - news), a leading provider of wireless, wireline and broadband access equipment, was officially chosen by the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) as one of a select group of participants in China's technical trial of 3G mobile networks based on the 3GPP WCDMA standard. The trial's first phase, which will be conducted by MII's Research Institute of Telecommunications Transmission (RITT) and 3G Technical Trial Expert Group (3GTEG), will be implemented in the MTNet trial environment, a comprehensive testing facility for mobile communications systems under the management of the RITT. This trial requires each vendor to provide a complete 3GPP R99 compliant system, which includes Node-B, RNC, MSC, GSN, NMS, HLR and others.

      (Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20001102/UTSILOGO )
      ``The significance of being selected by MII to participate in these 3G trials in China is monumental,'' said Hong Lu, President and CEO of UTStarcom Inc. ``Any company that hopes to be a 3G player in China, the world's largest telecommunications market, must be a participant in this initial trial. This trial sets the stage for China's 3G development, and as one of only a small group of participants chosen worldwide, UTStarcom will be at the forefront of the technological and competitive landscape.'' ``Moreover,'' Lu adds, ``when 3G is commercially launched sometime in 2003, operators, such as China Telecom who utilize our PAS(TM) mobile technology, will have the opportunity to offer a two-tiered mobile voice and data solution for all its customers, from high-end to low-end. This level of service will give them a competitive advantage in the 3G mobile marketplace.''

      This technical trial is the first required step in order for equipment vendors to qualify to supply 3G systems and equipment in China. The trials will also provide insight into the selection of different technologies by the various operators in China.

      The trial is being conducted in two phases. The first phase, which will begin in January 2002 and last through the end of March 2002, is a single system test. This test will focus on the system compliance, functions, interfaces and other functionalities of each vendor's platform. The results of the first phase will determine a company's ability to participate in the second phase, actual field trials which will take place in multiple cities on multiple operators' networks. The second phase of the trial will test the systems equipment, terminals and interoperability between different vendors. The second phase of the trial may last for up to one year and it is forecasted that China will begin its selection of 3G technology after the completion of these trials.

      • 2 Replies to numberssstalk
      • ``Moreover,'' Lu adds, ``when 3G is commercially launched sometime in 2003, operators, such as China Telecom who utilize our PAS(TM) mobile technology, will have the opportunity to offer a two-tiered mobile voice and data solution for all its customers, from high-end to low-end. This level of service will give them a competitive advantage in the 3G mobile marketplace."

        A very good position, indeed. They offer a popular, low cost alternative now. And will be positioned to offer the full spectrum in the future.

      • This is very good news. UTSI is developing an excellent 3G platform. Future growth continues to look promising.

    • how many employees do they have in CHINA? when
      this number decreases then u run. if it goes up over
      the years then a buyout will happen. UTSI stroking
      all the right people. it would payoff for a lucent
      type to buyout.

      so what are the employment
      numbers last quarter compared to this quarter? there is
      lots of work to be done in china so when this
      decreases its audi 5000.

      go longs!

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UTSI
2.92+0.06(+2.10%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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