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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

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  • birdluck1 birdluck1 Feb 22, 2010 5:32 PM Flag

    DCF for 4Q '09

    Here are the WF bullet summary points from the WF ETP report dated today, 2/22/10.

    ETP: Q4 Results Mixed - Adjusting Estimates

    • Key Takeaways. Q4 EBITDA beat, but DCF fell short of our estimate. ETP
    remains committed to resuming distribution growth, potentially in 2010 but
    most likely in 2011, in our view. Management noted the partnership was working
    on multiple projects in the Marcellus Shale and reiterated its goal of building a
    meaningful presence in the region. In addition, ETP continues to actively pursue
    acquisition opportunities and has already completed one transaction YTD for
    $150MM. We are raising our 2010 DCF/unit estimate to $3.81 from $3.62
    primarily to reflect lower forecasted maintenance capex spending. We remain
    comfortable with our Outperform rating. The fundamental outlook for ETP
    continues to improve supported by higher natural gas prices, a rebound in

    drilling activity in N. Texas, and a growing fee-based revenue stream.

    • Q4 Results Mixed– EBITDA Slightly Above Forecast, But DCF Misses.
    ETP reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $477MM, which was slightly ahead of our
    street-high estimate of $466MM and Consensus of $405MM. The positive
    variance relative to our estimate was driven primarily by higher intrastate
    pipeline results (partially due to higher noncash gains), which offset slightly
    lower interstate pipeline results. Q4’09 DCF per unit of $0.76, which excludes
    non-cash items, was below our estimate of $0.93. To note, ETP incurred onetime
    cash losses/deferred revenue of $26MM during the quarter. Adjusting for
    these one-time items, DCF/unit would have been $0.90, which is essentially inline
    with our estimate. ETP maintained its quarterly distribution of $0.89375
    per unit, which was in-line with our expectation. On a TTM basis, ETP generated

    a coverage ratio of 0.98x (or a slight cash flow deficit of $19MM).

    • Drilling Activity Picking Up In The Barnett – Volumes Could
    Rebound Sharply. ETP noted that volumes increased by 250-300 MMcf/d in
    December and could increase to 500 MMcf/d by the end of Q1’10. The
    partnership expects utilization on its Texas Intrastate pipeline system could
    reach 90% by the end of the year from an estimated 65% in Q4’09. Similarly,
    Chesapeake Energy (CHK), one of ETP’s key shippers, anticipates Barnett Shale
    production to increase from 900 MMcfe/d (gross) currently to 1.12Bcfe/d in
    2010 (exit rate) and 1.26Bcfe/d gross in 2011. This represents yr/yr production
    increases of 24% in Q4’10 and 13% in Q4’11.

 
ETP
56.06+0.31(+0.56%)Apr 17 4:02 PMEDT

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