I could be wrong but it seems like they should have announced distribution already. If they do announce another secondary, I will switch out of this. I know they all do them, but not like etp. It seems it is two sometimes 3 a year. Wondering too with the sun purchase and the extra shares if a distribution cut is not in the cards... If they raise the distribution, heaven forbid, the price will gain traction, not until.
This is one mlp that over the next couple of years could outperform the sector due to all the acquisitions and project completions, or stay in the dog house if they keep up the secondaries, or cut the distributions. Just hope they do not have any debt coming due. From what I can tell, nothing until next July, but they have at least one bond due most years, sometimes two right through 2022. From 2022 through 2035 nothing. They need to spread some of these out, 9 due in next 10 years, then none for the next 12.
Their debt is not an issue. They can get about 4% for 20 years right now as they are still investment grade. ETP has another capital need coming but probably have enough cash till after first of the year. Remember they have $1B+ of APU stock they can start selling in Q1 or Q2 of next year and a potload of distributions and IDRs from SXL. Also own the Sunoco retail stations with ETE. Those are certainly for sale and worth another $1B or so to ETP.
My guess along with most of the major analyists suggest a small distribution increase starting with Q1 of next year. With the spreads and NGL prices back ETP probably covered this quarter and will be closer to 1.05-1.1X coverage for Q4 according to the analyist reports I have read - all 5 of them! This would allow a small increase starting in 2013 each quarter. Also don't forget the ownership of quiet and steady regulated Citrus pipe.
After the APU units are sold and the retail stations go away, ETP will have less than 1/4 of the same assets it held only 10 months ago. The good news is if the market gets creamed over Europe, fiscal cliff, or ??? - ETP should be relatively immune due to the yield it provides.
If certainly will be interesting listening to the next 3 conference calls.