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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

  • Paul44_1998 Paul44_1998 Jan 16, 2008 12:11 PM Flag

    2 Day Drop

    Without bashing or hyping, does anyone know about this 2 drop without any news? Thanks for any help.

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    • Paul44: I spoke to my Synovus broker this evening about the bad drop also. She said that APU has exhibited this kind of behavior before, and to prove it she plotted APU for the past year, and indeed somewhere around the August/Sept timeframe of 2007, it also had a steep 4 or 5 point drop, then recovered. Also, the market was down so much today that APU would have also been influenced by todays big move down. In conclusion she said to "hold on", don't sell yet, and if it continues on down for another 2 or 3 days, we may have to sell it somewhere around 27 or 28 which is only slightly higher than the price I bot my original 500 shares.

      • 1 Reply to bobdpaley
      • This does look something like the Aug '07 drop, some kind of forced selling. Only it's been in a straight line and over a week instead of 2 big drops spaced farther apart. The other difference is it's not happening to other energy distribution MLPs. I own KMP and just started buying NS. I added more APU yesterday at 32.75 so my basis is 30.69 with buys spread over the last 2 years.

        This isn't the kind of investment that you want to sell when it gets cheaper on no news, you should look at this as a buying opportunity. Look at the 5 year chart - after every sudden drop there's a nice recovery.


    • No direct company news in a couple weeks, so nothing APU specific to hang our hat on.

      But it is pulling back like it did in August 2007. I know many of my commodity based stocks took a dump back then in a deflationary pullback (or at least when the market pulled back so far back then that we had people starting to worry about deflation rather than inflation before the US Fed started to cut rates).

      Don't know if we are getting a repeat, but considering the conditions right now, I wouldn't be surprised if this may behind some of it. Only thing that doesn't jive with this reasoning is that I'm not seeing that much pullback from my other commodity based MLPs.

      Other then that, I would suggest being on the lookout for some company related news popping up in the next few days where maybe somebody on the inside knows something we don't (don't want to get too black helecopter on the conspiracy theory end of things, but we've probably all been around long enough to have an investment pull that on us).

    • Good Q. Yes, almost all oil & gas are down a lot last two days. But APU is down significantly more than comparable propane ETPs, e.g., FGP.

    • spendingmykidsinheritance spendingmykidsinheritance Jan 16, 2008 2:13 PM Flag

      Looks like someone dumped similar to selloff in August. If you are looking for attractive long term dividend play, nice entry point. 7.4% yield here and 13% appreciation back to 36, deferred taxes, what's not to like?

      Added some here, if there is another leg down into 31.50 area, I will add more.

    • Entire oil and gas complex corecting on lower crude
      prices imo.
      I was just about ready to declare this board dead.
      Hopefully some of the more knowledgeable people will
      chime in.

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