I just sold the last of my units. It actually makes me sad since Amerigas is a good company and one of my best long-term investments. I first bought APU in late 2005 around $28 to 29 at a yield of 8%. I've done well with selling a little when it was high and buying when it dropped or during various market crashes. At one time APU was my biggest individual investment.
But with the recent near-parabolic move I can't stay in. Amerigas has only a 3-5% long-term growth goal. And of couse this year's earnings will be less than last year's outsize earnings. Last quarter's (seasonally slow) earnings was a slight miss.
S&P's 1 year target was just increased from $43 to 45, but their targets are usually just +10% of where a stock is now. Thompson/First Call's 6 analyst targets are from $40 to 44.
Even with the recent bull run in MLPs there are still many large ones with higher yield and more growth potential than APU. If APU drops 10% or more from here, I'll be ready and happy to start buying back.
Why the pop to $48? I agree with your analysis but you still got burned on the price increase. Why? What is APU offering that we do not see? I got in at $28 and am still in but I too wonder when the other shoe drops. OR does it keep going up? Thoughts?
I agree with everything you said 100% today the last of my APU was sold for 46.08... I also bought around 2000 around $26...selling some as it went up and buying it back as it would pull back...I dont like that it is all gone when I'm so used to seeing it in my portfolio for so many years...but hopefully we see a 10% pullback which happens many time within 2 weeks after ex-dividend...ex-dividend is tommorrow