This is for that investor who is really involved and strives for that big dividend. I am a common person who understands math and the numbers just don't add up. So...AmeriGas as a stand alone company had an EBIDAT of around 362 million dollars for 2012. Add in Herirage and the number goes up to about 650 million. They now tell you that they will finish 2012 at 382 million combined. That's about 250 million + short of target. Now, I read that they made less then $3.00 a unit and now they pay out a dividend of $3.20. They borrowed over a billion to get Heritage and their fiscal 2013 target is $645 million. I am told that they are losing customers at an alarming rate, they are over $1.00 gallon higher per gallon then the independents and they still have this enormous debt. If we get anothet warm winter, will they sell more units to pay the dividends? I am just a common person who is good in math. I would love to hear from the experts.
PS I also here that they have other issues pending that could deepen the debt.
You are a "common person" in that you have a very strong bias, i.e. you believe APU will not be able to sustain its current dividend. If we have another winter like last winter, or warmer, you could be right. On the other hand, if we have a "normal" winter, whatever that is, or colder, APU is likely to meet its targets, which means a dividend increase.
My bias is this company, UGI actually, has been creating value for shareholders for quite awhile and is likely to continue to do so. Ten years from now I think I will be glad I have owned UGI for the last ten years. Wish I had bought it ten years ago!
If you are going to bet against a company why not pick a company that has a long history of destroying shareholder value, versus a company that has a long history of creating value? Bad, and good, habits are hard to break.
Tom...You must be frustrated. I only asked a couple of simple questions. When they report their year end results they will confuse you with alot of this and that. The truth of the matter is that the two combined companies will miss their budget by 200 Million +. That is real money. Yes the stock has risen and yes, the dividend is good. I just want to know what happens when the debt comes due, not enough money is made to pay dividend and what will happen with another warm winter..Act like a man Tom ...not a child with your statements..Look to the future Tom when I will surprise you with some interesting information...