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美國住宅抵押貸款投資公司 Message Board

  • dynisaneasy5baggerfromhere dynisaneasy5baggerfromhere Apr 6, 2007 2:22 PM Flag

    Open $17 Monday Close $12.79

    I am short AHM and DSL, both of which will get crushed on Monday. Also, those who argue that this is factored in are completely ignorant. The company put out a PR stating that they are NOT exposed or in danger. The street has been saying that subprime was "contained: and would not spill over to Alt-A. This is now confirmation and institutions will be forced to jump ship due to violation of crucial financial ratios. Rats will jump ship on Monday and it will be NEW, FMT, NFI all over again...I fully xpect single digits around $8 by end of week. I am NOT saying AHM is going BK but I am saying that their balance sheet will look like dogshit and their future ability to sustain earnings is done for the next 3 years minimum.

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    • is TMA next? What about CFC?

    • You are joking right? Even at 17$, the new dividend would be 16.4% -- and that would be after all the uncertainty is on the table. The stock has been trading at a severe discount because of exactly what was announced today -- the company is experiencing difficulty with their loans.

      Mgmt laid it all out on the table today and provided conservative numbers for the remainder of the year, which even at $26, would still be giving a dividend of 11% -- which is not too shabby.

      Sure there are problems, but everyone knew that -- every article I have read about this company recently said that they expected the dividend to be cut, but that even despite the cut, the stock was severely undervalued.

      If AHM goes down to $17, it would be on sheer panic, and I don't see that happening. In fact, if you look at other companies in this sector that have recently cut earnings and dividends, they were up sharply the following day -- for the simple reason that investors finally had clarity as to where the company stood. I would not be surprised to see the same happen with AHM on Monday.

      And if not, I would be a buyer at $17, not to mention $12.79