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  • magsdaytrader magsdaytrader May 28, 2008 12:49 AM Flag

    Have energy stocks peaked for the year?

    The last phase of the rise in these stocks was very parabolic, which at a minimum signifies a near term top. Momentum markets trade on psychology more than earnings visibility. The ag stocks topped out over a month ago and they also have a lot of earnings visibility. We need a wash out of the oil stocks before moving higher. I still think that the next 1-2 months the oil and other energy and commodity stocks will correct at least 20%. Even if oil moves higher, the oil stocks will not. The market is telling us that oil above $130 will adversly impact our economy. Fear is never good for stocks, even oil stocks. This has been a very crowded trade and when everyone realizes whats happening, the downside volume will pick up. I plan to sell into stregth, rather than build new positions.

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