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Primo Water Corporation (PRMW) Message Board

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  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Aug 17, 2011 6:43 PM Flag

    Some numbers - please sit down

    PPS - you think this isn't why people were falling all over themselves to get in on the IPO and secondary offerings at $12? They certainly weren't buying 20 million shares hoping Q3 '11 would meet "expectations".

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    • You're assuming 2013 share count won't change from today?

      You need to add in future dillution through stock options etc. Still not alot but a few million anyway

      • 1 Reply to chartmancommeth44
      • I'm ASSUMING the entire scenario. There is no way to predict the future. IF they hit 2012 numbers they will be generating so much cash there will never be a need to issue any shares. IF they continue growing at 100% for 2013 no matter how many shares are added through options etc. it will be irrelevant since the earnings will be huge and the stock price will reflect it in a big way.

        The point is just to illustrate the phenomenal potential. I'm in it for the 2 year time frame and if it comes anywhere close to this scenario I will be retiring in comfort.

        No way under ANY scenario they won't continue with extremely healthy growth. They have access to 50,000 locations with their current list of customers - all they have to do is execute the growth plan and get the water systems set up in the locations. They are in 17,000 locations now and had 115% growth in water sales this quarter. They are adding an average of 5,000 locations per year plus the new water dispensers and soda machine - not to mention the Primo Pure Ice product. Impressive growth is inevitable and their SG&A costs should stay pretty constant. That means sales growth gets levered immediately to the bottom line at the gross margin level since their are no incremental SG&A costs. Profit mania ensues

        Buying shares at these prices and waiting it out is about as sure thing as you ever get in the stock market. Billy Prim is a mover and they are executing very well with a product that is in constant demand at a very reasonable price and rapid growth virtually assured for the next few years.

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