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Calpine Corp. Message Board

  • MCROC43 MCROC43 Jul 16, 2003 1:29 PM Flag

    OK, I'm Back In The Saddle Again

    I've calmed down and taken 1/3 off the table. But, I'm back in at $6.84. It took a full year to rattle my cage but CPN shorts finally got my shares at 6.78. Cost me an extra .06 per share to get them back.

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    • Wow...that was quick! Sure you had stepped away long enough? ;)

    • areosmith? :]

      • 2 Replies to DMerril
      • Welcome back. This is a tough stock sometimes. I have been reading Peter Lynch/s old book, One Up on Wall Street. It really is an amazing book. It is a wonder they didn't ride him out of town on a rail.

        He was a big afficiando of 10 baggers. Said they made the portfolio. I truly think that this stock is a ten bagger for me, a 6 bagger foir people buying in here.

        Here are his descriptions of a "Perfect" stock.

        1. It sounds dull. Calpine. Where is the excitment in that.
        2. It does something disagreeable. Something that makes people turn away in disgust, wretch, or shrug. Well we, gasp, trade. We burn fossil fuel. We deal with CA. We inhabitted the planet with Enron.
        3.It does something dull. It's a kinda ute. sells power to utilities. Dull.
        4.It's a spin-off. We lose.
        5.Institutions don't own it and analysts don't cover it. Many fewer institutions own much less and many fewer analysts cover it.
        6. Rumors Abound. Something unthinkable that will keep the investors away. He suggests toxic waste or rumored mafia involvement as nice features. We have BK rumors, gluts, ng shortages, accounting scandals, political posturing. We get these points.
        7.There is something depressing about it. We lose on this one.
        8. It is in a no growth industry. We win!
        9. It has got a niche. Niche is US. We are a low cost provider, we have plants that will not be duplicated for a billion years. No one is snapping at our heels and building competing plants. Out plants tend to be where older and uglier gas plants already are. Everyone swore off trading and we kept on with our stealth optimization.
        10. People have to keep buying it. Yup, there is that storage problem with elctricity.
        11. It is a user of technology. Yup.
        12. Insiders are buying. He says they sell for a lot of reasons and that isn't too important, but they only buy if they think the stock is going to appreciate. Thanks be we got insiders buying.
        13. The company is buying back shares. Not here. But it is buying back debt that may one day enable them to buy back shares.

        He also makes a huge point about the volitility of the market. Stocks that go up 1000% can also drop hugely in a given year. That they soometimes go down before they go up, go down while going up, yada, yada, yada. Says buy em if you believe in them and hold them until something in the story ceases to make sense. But that if you sell at 100%, you will make a nice profit, but you will not get rich. If the story is still good. I say the CPN story is just beginning to get good.

      • Back In The Saddle Again



        I'm back in the saddle again
        Out where a friend is a friend
        Where the long-horn cattle feed
        On the lowly jimson weed
        I'm back in the saddle again.

        Ridin' the range once more
        Totin' my old forty-four
        Where you sleep out every night
        Where the only law is right
        I'm back in the saddle again.

        Whoop-pi-ti-yi-yo
        Rockin' to and fro
        Back in the saddle again
        Whoop-pi-ti-yi-yay
        I go my own way
        Back in the saddle again.

        Gene Autry

 
CPN
20.54+0.29(+1.43%)May 27 4:02 PMEDT